The number of students will increase sharply in the next 3 years, how will Hai Duong respond?

High pressure

In recent years, the pressure to enter public high schools has increased due to the sharp increase in the number of 9th graders. In the 2024-2025 school year, the number of 9th graders is equivalent to the 2023-2024 school year but will increase sharply (more than 4,000 students) in the 2025-2026 school year.

In particular, the 2026-2027 school year will have about 42,000 ninth graders, an increase of more than 12,000 students compared to the 2024-2025 school year. These are students born in 2012, the year of the Dragon. From the 2017-2018 to 2029-2030 school year, 2026-2027 is the school year with the highest number of ninth graders.

According to some education experts in Hai Duong, the number of 9th graders has increased sharply due to some densely populated districts, towns, and cities with industrial parks... leading to a high increase in mechanical population such as Cam Giang district, Kinh Mon town, Hai Duong city, Chi Linh city. In addition, the number of students may increase due to people choosing good years such as 2012 Nham Thin, the year of the "golden dragon" to have children.

Meanwhile, the scale of schools and classrooms is still limited, many places have degraded facilities and lack classrooms. In particular, the quotas assigned to public and non-public high schools are still low or difficult to increase due to the scale of schools, classes, teaching staff and budget.

Therefore, from this school year, many parents with children born in 2011 and 2012 are worried. Ms. Tran Thi Tam in Ngoc Chau ward (Hai Duong city) has a child born in 2012, said that from the 2024-2025 school year, she will focus on her child to prepare the best conditions for the entrance exam to grade 10 in the 2026-2027 school year.

In Hai Duong City, in the 2024-2025 school year, high schools and continuing education sectors are assigned about 5,700 enrollment targets for grade 10. Meanwhile, in the 2026-2027 school year, Hai Duong City has about 6,800 grade 9 students, an increase of about 1,100 students compared to the 2024-2025 school year. If there are no changes in school size, classes and enrollment targets, about 1,100 grade 9 students in the 2026-2027 school year will have to choose to study at vocational schools, schools outside the city or other orientations.

In Kinh Mon town, the number of ninth graders will increase by about 500 students each year in the next 3 years. In the 2026-2027 school year, there will be about 3,880 ninth graders, an increase of 1,150 students compared to the 2024-2025 school year. In the 2024-2025 school year, the enrollment target for high schools and continuing education is more than 2,230 students. If the enrollment target remains the same and no new schools or classes are added, in the 2026-2027 school year, the entire Kinh Mon town will have about 1,600 ninth graders who will have to attend vocational schools or other orientations.

What is the solution?

The representative of the Department of Education and Training of Hai Duong City said that it is necessary to attract investment to develop private high schools in areas with high population density and many industrial zones. It is possible to study increasing the enrollment quota for grade 10 for public and private high schools. However, it is also necessary to strictly manage the education quality of private high schools, and continue to promote the implementation of student streaming after junior high school.

Sharing the same view, the representative of the Kinh Mon Town Department of Education and Training said that schools should increase their scale, facilities, and teaching staff, and can increase class sizes and enrollment targets for grade 10 in both public and non-public sectors as well as continuing education. In particular, the classification of students after junior high school needs to be implemented more effectively. Vocational schools must improve the quality of cultural training as well as vocational training, ensuring output to attract students to choose to study.

In fact, in the 2024-2025 school year, only 51% of junior high school graduates in the province were admitted to public high schools. This rate is lower than in many other provinces and cities. At the most recent meeting, the Department of Education and Training of Hai Duong also proposed that the Provincial People's Committee allow an increase in the number of 10th grade students as one of the solutions to solve the problem of a sharp increase in 9th grade students in the coming school years.

In 2024, Hai Duong will have 5 more high schools established, which can enroll students immediately, bringing the total number of high schools in the province to 60 (41 public schools and 19 private schools). Many public high schools have also been invested in construction, renovation, repair, and expansion of classrooms. This is one of the bases for the Department of Education and Training of Hai Duong to continue to coordinate with related departments and branches to research and advise the Provincial People's Committee on solutions to solve the problem of increasing student numbers in the coming time.

In the 2026-2027 school year, Hai Duong will have about 42,000 ninth graders, an increase of 12,000 students compared to the 2024-2025 school year, so the enrollment pressure will be very high. However, in the 2027-2028 school year, this number will immediately decrease to about 5,000-6,000 students. Therefore, the options need to be carefully calculated. Increasing class size and increasing enrollment targets must be based on considering the establishment project, school size, classes, and teaching staff to meet the regulations, especially in the private high school sector. Continue to effectively implement the post-secondary education stream to transfer the large number of students studying at vocational schools. Effective streamlining will both reduce enrollment pressure and create a high-quality labor source for the province.