US to provide Ukraine with missiles that 'dramatically change the course of the conflict'

The US is close to a decision to supply long-range JASSM cruise missiles to Ukraine. However, Kiev will have to wait several months for the US to resolve technical issues before the transfer can take place.

According to three sources of Reuters, the inclusion of JASSM missiles in the arms aid package for Ukraine is expected to be announced this fall, that is, before the end of November. However, the final decision has not yet been made.

Sending JASSM missiles to Ukraine could dramatically change the strategic landscape of the conflict, officials said, because much of the Russian Federation would be within range of these powerful and precise weapons.

Meanwhile, military analysts say that the use of JASSM missiles, which have stealth capabilities and a longer range than most missiles currently in Ukraine's arsenal, could force Russia to move its troop positions and logistics depots hundreds of kilometers away, complicating Russia's ability to conduct offensive operations and potentially giving Ukraine a strategic advantage.

Specifically, launching missiles from areas near Ukraine’s northern border with Russia could allow the Ukrainian Armed Forces to strike targets as far away as the Russian cities of Voronezh and Bryansk. In the south, launching missiles from near the front line could allow Ukraine to strike Russian airfields or naval facilities in the Crimean Peninsula, an area annexed by Moscow in 2014.

According to Reuters, currently, the JASSM missile is only integrated into fighter jets developed by the US. Ukraine is expected to be provided with several dozen F-16 fighter jets, each capable of carrying two cruise missiles.

However, a US official said there were efforts to integrate the JASSM missile with non-Western aircraft that Ukraine owns. The official did not specify which aircraft, though Ukraine currently operates MiG-29, Su-24, and Su-27 fighters.

United24 news site added that JASSM, developed by Lockheed Martin, is a subsonic air-to-ground cruise missile with powerful long-range attack capabilities, with a 450 kg warhead and a total weight of 1,020 kg.

The JASSM's range varies depending on the version, with the JASSM-ER version being able to engage targets up to 980 km away.

Ukraine is likely to receive JASSM missiles with a shorter range of around 370 km. While this is significantly lower than the missile’s maximum capability, it still represents a significant upgrade to Ukraine’s defense capabilities.

First, the JASSM missile's range allows Ukraine to strike targets on the Crimean Peninsula, where hundreds of Russian military bases, airports, air defense systems and logistics centers are concentrated.

The JASSM missile can also strike deep behind the front lines in partially Russian-held regions such as Donetsk and Luhansk.

Second, Ukraine currently has only one long-range air-to-surface missile, the Storm Shadow/SCALP, supplied by the UK and France. Another option is the US Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS), but both are launched from ground-based systems. So adding the JASSM to the arsenal would expand Ukraine’s strike capabilities while increasing the number of missiles available.

It is not yet clear whether Ukraine will receive large numbers of JASSM missiles.

According to reports, the US defense industry is capable of producing about 40-50 JASSM missiles per month, equivalent to more than 500 units per year. However, the number of versions with a range of 370 km has not been determined.

Still, even in limited numbers, this would be a significant addition to Ukraine’s defense capabilities. Another key advantage is that these missiles can be used with existing platforms—particularly the F-16, each of which is capable of carrying two JASSMs.

This not only enhances long-range strike capabilities, but also helps optimize the combat effectiveness of weapon systems available in the Ukrainian Air Force.

On November 17, US President Joe Biden authorized Ukraine to use US long-range ATACMS missiles to attack Russian territory for the first time, just two months before his presidential term ends.

France and Britain have also authorized Ukraine to use SCALP and Storm Shadow missiles. However, all these decisions have been limited to strikes in the Kursk region.