China predicts which countries will take its 'top spot' in rare earths

In a study published in the journal Chinese Rare Earths in March, CAS scientists warned that China's roughly 62% share of the raw materials market could fall to just 28% by 2035.

In addition, the researchers predict that market share could slide further, to just 23% by 2040. According to CAS, China will completely lose its previous dominance as further openings in Africa, South America and Australia are likely to reshape the industry. The study concludes that fundamental changes are underway.

The South China Morning Post (Hong Kong, China) quoted the research as saying that even the heavy rare earth "stronghold" in southern China could be surpassed by Greenland's Kvanefjeld as well as some projects in South America.

It is a rare and detailed admission by a Chinese scientific body of the fragile reality of the country’s control over the rare earth supply chain. China holds 60% of the world’s reserves and accounts for 90% of global processing.

Because rare earths play a key role in the production of high-tech products such as smartphones and electric cars, leveraging rare earth reserves gives China's high-tech industries a competitive edge, and is also a geopolitically important factor for Beijing.

CAS researchers emphasized: “By 2040, as global demand for rare earths continues to grow strongly, Africa and Australia will develop additional high-potential rare earth deposits.

Europe is also expected to begin participating in the global rare earth supply chain. This development marks a profound shift in the global rare earth market and reflects the accelerating trend towards diversified supply sources.”

Forecasting models by CAS researchers show that Africa, led by South Africa's Steenkampskraal mine and Tanzanian projects, could reach a global market share of 6% by 2040, up from 1% in 2025, despite infrastructure hurdles and geopolitical risks.

Brazil's Serra Verde and Amazon mines, rich in heavy rare earths such as dysprosium, could meet up to 13% of global demand by 2040. In Australia, there is the Mount Weld mine, famous for its 99% purity neodymium reserves, and the Olympic Dam mine.

However, the researchers also warned of a number of potential “game-changers.” According to CAS, technological disruptions such as deep-sea mining, the emergence of viable alternatives from magnets or cleaner mining methods could reduce the accuracy of their forecasting models.

The researchers also noted that their model did not take into account additional political or environmental risks. Export bans or tariffs, unrest in emerging mining countries like Mali, or pollution from processing heavy African thorium ores could all affect the accuracy of the results, they said.

The CAS study recommends that China increase domestic rare earth exploration and mining while diversifying its international partnerships. The researchers also suggest creating a stronger and more robust national strategic reserve system.

“Hoarding these resources will reduce risks from market volatility or unforeseen disruptions,” they analyze.

Rare earths include 17 elements that contribute to the production of magnets that convert energy into motion for use in countless electrical and electronic devices, from phone chips, electric cars, wind turbines, military equipment...

China currently accounts for about 90% of the world’s refined rare earth production. In recent years, European countries and the United States have also tried to reduce their dependence on Chinese rare earths. However, these countries have yet to master the refining process of these strategic minerals due to the technical complexity.