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The world expects change in 2025

HUNG ANH January 5, 2025 12:12

If we summarize all the events, hot spots, and conflicts in 2024, it can be affirmed that the international community is looking forward to change, which will bring peace, stability, and development to the whole world.

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Overview of the BRICS Summit in Kazan, Russia on October 23, 2024

The hope for change for the better was demonstrated by the results of elections in various parts of the world in 2024. It is estimated that more than 1.6 billion people voted, and in the vast majority of cases, those expected to bring about change won.

In the US, the Democratic Party was comprehensively defeated by the Republican Party; in the UK, the Conservative Party suffered a heavy defeat by the Labour Party, ending the party's long period of dominance of British politics.

In France, President Emmanuel Macron’s ruling party, which had lost its previous popularity, is caught between the right-wing and left-wing opposition, plunging the country into a deep political crisis. The foundations of the political system, which had always been stable, are starting to falter in Germany, South Korea and Japan. Even Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s party, which had enjoyed high popularity in recent years, failed to maintain its parliamentary majority after the election.

And in South Africa, the African National Congress (ANC), in power since 1994 and a symbol of the struggle for black rights in South Africa, lost its absolute majority for the first time after elections in early June 2024.

Pessimists may argue that the results of the above elections, without changing the nature of the structure of international relations, especially the building of strategic trust between major countries, are only the “tip of the iceberg” and cannot solve the root of the current crisis. Replacing cautious technocrats with unpredictable populists will only cause more difficulties and challenges to the structure of international relations, the regional and global security environment. On the contrary, optimists argue that the current structures are “rusty” and it is time to change to bring peace, stability and development to each country, as well as the whole world.

International events over the past year have also brought different interpretations. Some say that none of the major armed conflicts that have been in place since 2023 will be resolved in 2024. Diplomatic efforts have all come to a standstill due to the huge differences in viewpoints and conflicting interests between the parties. The tendency for military conflict to escalate is even greater.

In late summer, the Ukrainian army carried out a bold, surprise military operation against Russia's Kursk region, and in mid-November, the West authorized the Ukrainian army to use long-range missiles against targets deep inside Russian territory. In return, on November 21, the Russian army used the Oreshnik medium-range hypersonic missile to attack Ukraine. The move, for Russia, was a clear "tough" message to its opponent. The Oreshnik is not a conventional local weapon, but a ballistic missile for special cases when the level of the conflict requires Russia to use it. Meanwhile, in the Middle East, Israel's military operation from the Gaza Strip began in the fall of 2023, gradually spreading to the West Bank, then to southern Lebanon, and by the end of 2024 to Syrian territory adjacent to the Golan Heights.

From the perspective of the most optimistic, the past year has demonstrated the disintegration of the old world order, opening up the prospect of forming a new multipolar world order with a greater role and position for the countries of the Global South. In addition, there has been no direct military conflict between Russia and NATO, nor has there been a major regional war in the Middle East, the Taiwan Strait or on the Korean Peninsula, although these issues have been constantly “heated up” and there have been times when it seemed that the “red line” had been crossed.

The global economic situation in 2024 is equally ambiguous. On the one hand, the global economy has been heavily impacted by geopolitical tensions throughout the year. The trend of technological competition between the US and China continues, and unilateral sanctions have become one of the main tools and priorities in the foreign policies of many countries. On the other hand, fortunately, the world has not yet fallen into a deep economic recession, despite trade and investment restrictions. Global economic growth by the end of the year is predicted to be around 3%, a level considered acceptable at a time when the world is facing many fluctuations and the long-term consequences of the Covid-19 pandemic have not yet been completely overcome.

In 2024, the average annual temperature on the planet exceeded pre-industrial levels by more than 1.5 degrees Celsius for the first time - another very important "red line" was crossed, and the 29th United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP29) held in Baku/Azerbaijan from November 11 to 22, 2024 did not meet many of the international community's expectations on this "hot" issue.

Over the past year, the UN Security Council was able to adopt only 12 resolutions to address global issues, which clearly shows the decline in the effectiveness of this global governance body (for comparison, in 2000, the UN Security Council adopted 29 resolutions, including the most important ones on resolving conflicts in the Balkans and Africa). An important highlight of multilateral cooperation mechanisms in 2024 is the work of the BRICS Group of Leading Emerging Economies. In 2024, BRICS promotes the concept of global plurality, the trend of globalization, and “erodes” the unipolar world order. BRICS has demonstrated that any constructive dialogue in international politics can only develop on the basis of national interests. As the 2024 BRICS chair, Moscow has found a good compromise between expanding BRICS and maintaining the organization's governance.

Clearly, the events of 2024 have painted a vivid picture of the world’s political, economic, and military situation, with some bright colors, but more of them still dark colors with military conflicts and escalating tensions in many different regions. As people around the world come to the end of a difficult and challenging year, it is understandable that they look forward to better changes ahead. And perhaps, there is no more appropriate time to promote those changes than in 2025, the year marking the 75th anniversary of the International Day of Multilateralism and Diplomacy for Peace.

HUNG ANH
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The world expects change in 2025