Who will win the Israel-Hezbollah confrontation?

In the escalating danger on the Israeli-Lebanese border, there is a serious risk that further attacks by both sides – whether intentional or miscalculated – could lead to a wider war, according to commentary in the National (UAE). For civilians living on both sides of the border, the pressure has been on for too long. Wael Mugrabi, the mayor of Ein Qiniyye, a village in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, made no secret of the fact that “we have been at war since three days after October 7 last year”.

It is a conflict in which more than 400 people have been killed since October 8, 2023, in addition to thousands of civilians on both sides who have been displaced by airstrikes, drone attacks and other cross-border fighting.

Even more worryingly, as much of the international community appears to be at a loss for a solution to the ongoing conflict in Gaza, the same indecision has led to the risk of another Israeli war in the north. Despite a US-led, UN Security Council-backed ceasefire in Gaza, the Israeli military remains in a state of war, while some members of its government have openly called for attacks on Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Hezbollah’s main priority, presumably, remains its own survival and maintaining its powerful position in Lebanon. But it is clear that Hezbollah has failed to prevent Israeli forces from ravaging Gaza and killing tens of thousands of Palestinian civilians. Instead, its actions have displaced thousands of noncombatant Israelis.

If a full-scale war between Israel and Hezbollah were to break out, the consequences for the Lebanese people, beyond those who have already lost their homes and livelihoods, would be dire. Many Lebanese still remember the war with Israel: Israel’s 15-year occupation of southern Lebanon ended in massacres and deepened existing sectarian divisions.

Against this backdrop, Amos Hochstein, a senior adviser to US President Joe Biden, is in a precarious position as a mediator. Earlier this week, the US special envoy traveled to Israel to discuss the situation at the border before heading to meetings in Beirut, the capital of Lebanon.

Mr. Hochstein has extensive experience in this area, having helped broker the 2022 agreement between Israel and Lebanon—two countries that are technically still at war and have no diplomatic relations—that for the first time demarcated the maritime boundary between the two countries, allowing both to develop offshore gas fields and exploit other natural resources.

Speaking in Lebanon after a meeting with political and military figures on June 25, Mr. Hochstein said the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah "has gone on long enough" and added that "in everyone's interest, a quick and diplomatic resolution is the right thing to do."

Mr. Hochstein is right, but the United States can and should do more to restrain Israel before another front in this war opens. Indeed, avoiding another conflict will require much more political and diplomatic focus than what has happened in Gaza, where the conflict remains unresolved.

In short, no one has anything to gain by moving from one war to another. Both Israel and Lebanon have much to lose from a full-scale war and nothing to gain in the long run. It is time for both sides to take a step back.