US assesses the risk of conflict between Israel and Hezbollah

CNN on June 22 quoted three US officials as saying that Washington is really concerned that in the event of a full-scale war between Israel and Hezbollah, the Lebanese armed group could overwhelm Israel's air defense system in northern Israel - including the famous Iron Dome air defense system.

Concerns that U.S. officials said were also communicated to them by Israel were that Iron Dome could be vulnerable to Hezbollah's vast arsenal of missiles and drones, and that Israel had told U.S. officials it was preparing for a ground and air campaign into Lebanon.

Israel has told US officials it is planning to move forces from southern Gaza to northern Israel in preparation for an attack on the militant group. “We assess that at least some” Iron Dome batteries “will be overwhelmed,” a senior Israeli government official said.

An Israeli official noted that this would be more likely if Hezbollah launched a large-scale attack, using mainly precision-guided weapons, which would be challenging for defenses. Hezbollah has stockpiled precision-guided missiles and ammunition for years, something Israel has repeatedly expressed concern about.

Earlier this month, Hezbollah released a video showing a drone attacking and damaging an Iron Dome battery at a military base in northern Israel. Israeli media reported that this appeared to be the first recorded case of the air defense system being successfully attacked.

The Lebanese militant group also released a nine-minute video this week, said to have been taken by drone, showing sensitive Israeli military sites in several cities in the country.

A US official admitted to CNN that in the event of all-out war, the support Israel would need most would be additional Iron Dome air defense systems from the US.

Iron Dome is the cornerstone of Israel's defense system, and the U.S. government has spent more than $2.9 billion on the program, according to the Congressional Research Service. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said the system had a 95.6 percent success rate against a barrage of rockets fired by Islamic jihadists last year, so if Hezbollah were to overwhelm Israel's missile defenses, it would put both Israeli military and civilian forces at risk.

According to US officials, discussions about the risk of this conflict are taking place in the context of the situation on Israel's northern border having "reached a dangerous peak".

A senior US official said the fallout from a wider war between Israel and Hezbollah could be devastating. Hezbollah has a larger, more advanced and more destructive arsenal of missiles and drones than Hamas. Most are short-range, but some can strike deep into Israeli territory with precision. The IDF estimates Hezbollah has about 150,000 rockets and artillery shells, including thousands of precision-guided munitions.