The key factor that helped Russia reverse the situation in Kursk

Ukraine’s daring assault on Russian territory has ended after seven months, with the remaining forces forced to withdraw from most of the Kursk region in recent days, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported on March 17. The move marked the end of a military campaign that surprised Western countries and embarrassed President Vladimir Putin.

From unexpected success to inevitable withdrawal

Ukraine launched a surprise attack on Kursk in the early hours of August 6 last year, catching Russian forces unprepared. Unlike previous border incursions that had been quick raids and retreats, this attack quickly covered a large area and took control of 100 villages and towns. Russia was caught by surprise and it took a month to completely halt the Ukrainian advance.

General Oleksandr Syrskiy, Ukraine's top military commander, has said that Ukraine cannot simply defend an increasingly shrinking territory from Russian attack, but must take the initiative to attack to create momentum and strength.

After the initial shock, Russia gradually overwhelmed the battlefield. They used familiar tactics: relentless attacks with overwhelming force, including elite units, that weakened Ukrainian forces for months.

Not only did warplanes drop massive glide bombs on Ukrainian military positions, Russia also deployed some of its best units to the area. As armored vehicles came under constant fire from Ukrainian forces, Russia relied on artillery, air strikes and infantry to advance in the difficult Kursk terrain, filled with swamps and soft soil that could not support heavy vehicles during the rainy season.

New technology: UAV guided by fiber optic cable

A key factor in Russia’s victory was the deployment of a new type of unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV), which has been increasing in numbers in recent months. Guided by fiber optic cables, these UAVs are immune to Ukraine’s electronic jamming systems.

By early March, the Ukrainian military was unable to move equipment in or out of Kursk without coming under heavy Russian bombardment, making evacuation of wounded or reinforcements nearly impossible.

"The Kursk area is collapsing because it is really difficult for reinforcements to reach our positions," said a Ukrainian soldier.

As the situation deteriorated late last week, General Syrskiy rushed to the Kursk front. Although the move was considered too slow, advisers said Syrskiy had to balance saving the lives of his troops and not giving up control of territory too easily.

"The (Ukrainian) military command is doing what it has to do, saving as many lives of our soldiers as possible," Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told reporters.

The WSJ noted that the Ukrainian withdrawal was generally organized but at times chaotic, and that it was under constant attack — and for some, it was too late. Images from Russian news agencies showed that Russian troops had captured an M1 Abrams tank and several other armored vehicles provided by the US.

Campaign Evaluation: Success or Failure?

Critics say the withdrawal has proven a wasteful campaign, costing Ukraine some of its best soldiers and US-supplied armored vehicles that were badly needed on other fronts.

Still, Ukrainian officials say the operation has achieved some of its initial goals: demonstrating to the Ukrainian people and Western allies that the Ukrainian military can still conduct attacks and capture soldiers to exchange for Ukrainian prisoners of war.

“Among all the bad options, what is a bad option? Ukraine has faced one dilemma after another,” said Nick Reynolds, a research fellow in land warfare at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) in London.

For his part, President Zelensky said the operation "has accomplished its mission", adding that Ukrainian forces are now defending along the mountainous border to prevent further advances by Russian forces.

Although Ukraine has stabilized some key areas of the frontline in eastern Ukraine, pushing Russia back from the city of Pokrovsk and counter-attacking in the city of Toretsk, the road ahead is fraught with challenges.

Ukraine is locked in a war of attrition against an opponent that is vastly superior in manpower and resources, while the leader of Ukraine’s largest aid donor, US President Donald Trump, is adjusting his tactics. The loss of territorial control in Kursk also means Ukraine loses a key bargaining chip in future peace negotiations.