The game suddenly turned around between Russia, the US, the EU and Ukraine?

The meeting came after Vice President JDVance criticized Western European leaders in Munich and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent for issuing an economic ultimatum to Ukraine, marking an unexpected split between Russia and the US on the one hand and the EU and Ukraine on the other.

Given the recent tensions and disagreements between Russia and the West, the international community’s expectations for the Russia-US summit in Riyadh are understandable. Some observers may have been disappointed that Marco Rubio and Sergei Lavrov did not appear after the talks to announce historic breakthroughs. Instead, both sides were very cautious in their statements.

So was the Riyadh meeting a failure? Many argue that the success of a negotiation is hard to measure by immediate results. Even before the talks began, Russian presidential aide Yury Ushakov set a modest goal in Riyadh: “agree on how to start negotiations.” By that standard, the summit largely achieved its intended purpose.

Highlights from Riyadh

According to Western media, the Russia-US summit lasted 4.5 hours and the parties reached the following consensus:

1- Restoring diplomatic channels: Russia and the US have agreed to begin the process of fully restoring embassy operations.

2- Create a consultation mechanism: Structured dialogue to resolve disagreements in bilateral relations.

3- Initiate negotiating groups on Ukraine: Although the current negotiations on Ukraine are very limited, the foundation has been laid for future discussions.

These are the basic results, but many believe that an even more important result was the general tone of the negotiations. For the first time in many years, Russian and American officials sat down face to face to discuss issues of bilateral cooperation, as well as the regional security situation. The change in the negotiating atmosphere was so obvious that President Donald Trump’s special envoy, Steve Witkoff, said he “could not imagine a better outcome.” The positive change in perception of Russian-American cooperation will be a real impetus for future negotiations.

The road to peace for Ukraine is still full of thorns

However, despite the positive tone, the talks in Riyadh failed to bring a quick end to the Ukraine conflict, as analysts had predicted. Moscow and Washington had gone into the meeting focused on improving their own relations first. The Ukraine issue seemed to remain secondary.

Despite President Donald Trump’s rapid reshaping of the diplomatic landscape, the road to peace remains rocky. For the past three years, the Western strategy has been clear: negotiate an internal peace deal between Ukraine and its allies, then try to pressure Russia into accepting it. But President Donald Trump’s return to the White House has changed that. He has reversed course, opting for direct negotiations with Moscow while sidelining Kiev and Brussels.

So the strategy that used to be “negotiate Ukraine with everyone but Russia” has now become “negotiate Ukraine with Russia but without Europe.” This shift suits both President Donald Trump and his counterpart Vladimir Putin. But it has inevitably angered Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky and EU leaders.

Opposition from Brussels and Kiev

Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky has rejected the legitimacy of any agreement between the US and Russia that does not take Kiev’s interests into account. Meanwhile, European officials increasingly view Washington as an “adversary” rather than an ally, a remarkable shift in international politics since the Cold War. Even if Moscow and Washington reach some kind of consensus, Ukraine, under the influence of the EU and the UK, may refuse to comply and be prepared to continue fighting.

Military experts say that despite the dwindling US aid, the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) may still have enough resources to continue fighting for at least another six months. In addition, the Ukrainian military’s ability to sustain the war depends on whether the EU and the UK can restore production in their defense industries, which seems highly unlikely. Ultimately, European countries will have no choice but to accept whatever solution is reached, as they cannot afford to shoulder the additional financial burden.

Waiting for Trump - Putin summit

It is believed that peace will be settled quickly, depending on a number of factors, the decisive of which will be a summit between President Donald Trump and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin, where a framework for a ceasefire can be finalized. For the peace-loving international community, this is the most desirable scenario.

The biggest sticking point now is how to construct a ceasefire. The US wants an immediate cessation of hostilities, followed by elections in Ukraine. With the war situation tilting in Russia’s favor, such an agreement is unacceptable. There is no guarantee that Ukraine will not use the ceasefire to regroup and resume fighting.

It remains unclear how Moscow and Washington will resolve this issue. But it is clear that the first steps towards peace in Ukraine have been taken, despite the long road ahead. The shift in US policy under President Donald Trump has changed the entire diplomatic equation, but the reality is that peace will not be achieved overnight. Instead, the peace process for Ukraine will be a long, gradual process. The first step has been taken, and now the international community waits to see what happens next.