New turning point for the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Just two months ago, perhaps the most optimistic people would not have dared to think about negotiations between the US and Russia on Ukraine, let alone normalizing bilateral relations. However, what was once impossible is now happening, bringing new hope to the international community for a peaceful, stable and developed world. This proves that only with the spirit of cooperation, construction, creating peace for the world, and respecting each other's national and ethnic interests can countries narrow differences and resume cooperation.

The White House is pushing for a political and diplomatic effort to resolve the Ukraine issue once and for all. Russia has responded with a willingness to engage in constructive dialogue. Europe, meanwhile, appears uncomfortable standing on the sidelines, but lacks the military and political power to stop or reverse the process. As for Ukraine, the Kiev government, unwilling as it is, has no choice because its survival depends on US support.

Untie the knot

According to the Kremlin, the phone call between the two Russian and US leaders lasted nearly 2.5 hours and went “very well”. “Common interests were expressed in normalizing bilateral relations based on the special responsibility of Russia and the US for ensuring security and stability in the world,” the Kremlin said in a statement after the phone call.

The leaders not only reaffirmed their commitment to a peaceful resolution of the conflict in Ukraine, but also agreed on concrete steps: a 30-day pause in attacks on energy infrastructure, a prisoner exchange, and the transfer of wounded. Russian President Vladimir Putin said he was ready to work with his American counterparts to thoroughly explore options for a comprehensive, sustainable, and long-term settlement of the situation.

“The key condition for preventing the escalation of the conflict and moving towards its resolution through political and diplomatic means must be a complete cessation of foreign military aid and intelligence provision to Kiev,” the Kremlin statement stressed.

For its part, the White House said the parties had agreed to immediately begin negotiations in the Middle East on a solution to the Ukraine issue, but did not specify the format of the negotiations. Previously, Russian and US diplomatic delegations met in Saudi Arabia and Türkiye. Many opinions said that Russia and the US will form expert groups to resolve the conflict.

In addition to Ukraine, the two leaders focused on ways to boost bilateral cooperation. Washington and Moscow considered “a wide range of areas where the two countries can cooperate.” The two leaders agreed that the future of improved bilateral relations between the United States and Russia would have many benefits. This includes major economic agreements and geopolitical stability once peace is achieved.

Change to create a turning point

The key to Washington’s approach is perhaps the fact that the Trump administration is not taking sides in the conflict – it only wants to end the war and achieve peace. This is also a statement that Mr. Trump has repeatedly made, which analysts consider a revolutionary statement. By positioning the US as a mediator instead of supporting any side, Mr. Trump has completely changed the US’s policy and strategy on the Ukraine issue.

President Trump’s vision for a solution to the conflict is also clear: pressure both sides to agree to a ceasefire, then negotiate a future that may or may not involve the United States. In fact, President Trump and his aides have always viewed war as an unnecessary drain on American resources. Their priority is to end the financial burdens facing the United States and focus resources on other, more pressing issues.

This explains why President Donald Trump is putting much more pressure on Ukraine than on Russia. In his eyes, Ukraine is a troubled asset with poor management that is “bleeding” American money. In Trump’s pragmatic view, the US needs to control the damage and cut costs from the Ukraine problem.

The pressure on Russia is of a different nature. Unlike Ukraine, Russia is not dependent on the United States and remains a great power with its own interests. President Donald Trump’s 2017 National Security Strategy defined great power competition as the defining feature of modern geopolitics, and this remains true today. Moreover, Trump does not want a high-risk, damaging nuclear war. He blames the previous administration for bringing the world to the brink of nuclear escalation without a clear goal. These views serve as a moderator for the Trump administration’s approach to Russia, which is very different from that of his predecessor, Joe Biden.

President Donald Trump’s declaration that he “does not take sides” is also appropriate in the case of Russia. Trump is not interested in the historical or cultural complexities of the conflict in Ukraine. However, there is no denying that the changes in President Donald Trump’s views and positions are a turning point, breaking the deadlock in US-Russia relations in particular and the Ukraine issue in general. Trump is willing to abandon the traditional views that have shaped Western policy toward Russia for many years, while at the same time promoting decisive steps toward understanding Moscow’s position in a way that previous US leaders have refused to do.

Trends in solving the Ukraine problem in the coming time

According to Fyodor Lukyanov, a member of the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC), President Donald Trump differs from his predecessors in that his goal is not global hegemony based on a specific ideology. He sees US dominance in the world not as a matter of spreading democracy or human rights, but as the ability to secure specific interests - especially economic ones. His approach is pragmatic, advocating achieving goals by any means, and regulatory constraints are not too big an obstacle.

On the Ukraine issue, President Donald Trump’s approach is a major turning point, because traditional thinking and views only lead to deadlock. However, Mr. Trump sees negotiations as a process of mutual compromise. If he believes that Ukraine must make concessions, he also believes that Russia must do the same. In President Trump’s view, any agreement must be reciprocal; otherwise, it would be unfair. This poses both challenges and opportunities for Moscow. It is not excluded that in the coming time, the US will act as an intermediary connecting the first direct rounds of negotiations between Russia and Ukraine to listen to the conditions and wishes of each side.

The White House has not ruled out territorial concessions and has said that the issue was also discussed in the US-Ukraine talks. This statement is sure to cause discontent in Kiev and Brussels. However, experts say that Europe and Ukraine are only observers and all directions are being decided in Moscow and Washington. In fact, the phone call between President Donald Trump and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin received a positive response from many European countries. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz called the parties' decision to stop attacking the country's energy infrastructure "a good start."

While no one knows what really happens behind closed doors, the phone call between the US and Russian leaders shows that diplomacy is back. Achieving a lasting peace will be a difficult and thorny road ahead. But when diplomacy returns – balancing power, recognizing common interests, and engaging in direct, substantive negotiations – the door is open for a peaceful resolution to the conflict in Ukraine.