Ukrainian media reveals content of military commanders arguing about 'disaster in Pokrovsk'

Pokrovsk is the last stronghold in the southwestern region of Donetsk Oblast, preventing Russian forces from advancing further toward Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and its capital Dnipro – a place of 1 million people that serves as the main hub for Kiev’s operations in the southeast.

Currently, the Russian Federation Army is closing in on Pokrovsk from the east and south. After capturing the village of Shevchenko, located just south of the city, the Russian Federation forces are now less than 4 km from this important logistics center, standing on the western edge of Donetsk Oblast.

According to the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, General Oleksandr Syrsky, the fighting is extremely fierce and the forces of the Russian Federation are concentrating all available forces, trying to penetrate the defense lines of the Ukrainian army.

Meanwhile, Ukraine is facing a severe shortage of infantry and disputes within the military command in charge of defense.

Gustav Gressel, a senior fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations in Berlin, said Moscow was planning to attack Pokrovsk from the south to encircle and cut off the main supply routes connecting Ukrainian-controlled territories to the frontline, and that Pokrovsk could suffer the same fate as Avdiivka, which Moscow declared full control of on February 17, 2024.

“At the moment, the Russian Federation Army can reach Pokrovsk with mortars and artillery, but the proximity to the E50 road and the railway to Dnipro is a more serious problem,” Gressel told The Kyiv Independent.

The reason, according to researcher Gressel, is that the Russians could soon gain access to the railway line to Zaporizhzhia, putting the E50 route under fire, and this would have major consequences for logistics in the entire southeastern region.

Currently, the forces of the Russian Federation spare no resources in using guided bombing and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) to attack Ukrainian cities, and Pokrovsk is no exception.

Researcher Gressel emphasized that drones were a decisive factor in the Pokrovsk direction, while the Russians learned and adapted very quickly, greatly improving the quality of drones, especially their resistance to jamming and flight range.

Another important reason for the rapid advance of Russian forces is their overwhelming manpower advantage. Despite efforts by the Ukrainian government to update conscription laws and recruit more soldiers, these efforts have not had a major impact in the hottest spots on the front line.

Federico Borsari, an expert at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), said Ukraine does not have enough manpower to deploy combat units and carry out troop rotations. Meanwhile, Russian forces continue to press their offensive.

Notably, according to expert Borsari, the forces of the Russian Federation have found weaknesses in Ukraine's defenses and used unconventional solutions, including unarmed vehicles, even civilian vehicles, to attack.

Speaking to The Kyiv Independent, expert Borsari said: “Continuous attacks, even when they fail, still weaken Ukraine's fighting power, causing them to run out of ammunition and supplies, leading to a situation where Ukrainian units are unable to cope with successive attacks from Ukrainian vehicles and infantry.

For its part, the Russian Federation is not expected to give up its goal of capturing the city of Pokrovsk despite record losses this fall and winter.

For Ukraine, it is worrying that in such a context, fierce disputes have emerged in the country's army.

“The main reason for the disaster in the Pokrovsk region is the high command, which sets unrealistic tasks for the units. The generals do not understand the capabilities of the units and do not grasp the situation at the front,” Serhii Filimonov, commander of the Da Vinci Wolves Battalion of the 59th Brigade, wrote on Telegram.

Alina Mikhailova, head of the Ulf medical team of the Da Vinci Wolves Battalion, also criticized General Yurii Lutsenko on social media, accusing him of causing huge territorial and human losses in Donetsk Oblast.

These criticisms have not received a public response from the Ukrainian General Staff and Commander-in-Chief Syrsky. However, according to the Financial Times, Mr. Lutsenko has been removed from his position as commander of the Donetsk operational and tactical group.

Ukrainian military officials have not confirmed the dismissal.

Expert Borsari also agrees with the view of Stanislav Buniatov, commander of a platoon of the 24th Independent Assault Battalion Aidar, that the Kremlin wants to capture as much territory as possible to gain strength at the negotiating table.

Borsari believes Ukraine still has a slim chance of defending Pokrovsk. Gressel also doesn’t see any easy way for Ukraine to hold the city, but he says it would be surprising if Russian forces were to capture Pokrovsk before the end of the year.

For now, all the Ukrainian army can do is hold the line.