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Investors are increasingly expecting the US Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 0.25 percentage points at its November meeting, after the latest US government report showed inflation last month was slightly higher than expected.
The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) - a key measure of inflation - rose 2.4% in September from a year earlier, higher than the 2.3% increase economists had expected, but down from the 2.5% increase in the previous month, the Commerce Department reported on October 10.
Compared to August 2024, the CPI increased 0.2% in September, up from the 0.1% forecast by Wall Street economists.
The core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, rose 0.3% month-over-month and 3.3% month-over-month in September 2023. Both figures beat forecasts by 0.1 percentage points. This is the Fed's preferred inflation measure.
On the same day, the US Department of Labor announced that the number of unemployment benefits applications reached 258,000 in the week ending October 5, the highest weekly level since August 5, 2023. This number increased by 33,000 compared to the previous week and higher than the forecast of 230,000.
The September 2024 inflation report comes after the Fed began cutting interest rates last month. After cutting rates by half a percentage point in September 2024, the Fed is expected to continue cutting rates, with the pace and extent of the cuts being big questions.
Fed officials are more confident that inflation is moving toward their 2% target, but they have also expressed some concerns about the labor market. According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, there is an 89% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates by 0.25 percentage points in November.
