Democrats losing early voting advantage

As of October 22, more than 21 million Americans have voted early, with record turnout in the battleground states of Georgia and North Carolina. The number of Republican voters participating in early voting this year has increased significantly, possibly due to the appeal of presidential candidate Donald Trump.

“I need you to get to the ballot box before Election Day, because they’re going to try to keep you home on Election Day,” Mr. Trump declared in North Carolina on October 21, without providing evidence.

In states with partisan voter registration, 47% of early voters support Democrats and 33% support Republicans, according to data compiled by the University of Florida. In battleground states, the gap is much smaller.

In the 2022 midterm elections, Democrats led Republicans in early voting in North Carolina by more than 30 percentage points. This year, the gap is down to about one percentage point.

In Nevada, Republicans are voting early in greater numbers than their opponents, a reversal from the 2020 election season, where Democrats have relied on early voting trends to beat Republicans for decades.

"Looking at the turnout numbers, I would say Republicans should be happy and Democrats seem to have work to do," said Michael Bitzer, a professor at Catawba College in North Carolina.

Observers say the trend represents a reversal in Republican views on voting compared to the 2020 election season. The Covid-19 pandemic then affected the way Americans cast their ballots. States allowed voters to vote absentee and by mail, but Mr. Trump criticized anything other than in-person voting.

The former president claimed, without providing evidence, that mail-in voting “creates chaos” and will lead to “interference from foreign countries.” Many of his supporters believed him. Trump went on to lose the election to Democratic challenger Joe Biden, thanks to overwhelming numbers of Democrats voting early and by mail.

Meanwhile, Democrats have been encouraging voters to vote early for years, which makes them less dependent on Election Day, where personal schedules, weather or health issues can keep voters from getting to the polls.

Early voting also allows campaigns to use their resources more efficiently, since they only need to target voters who have not yet voted. As a result, many Republicans have pushed Trump to change his stance on early and mail-in voting to level the playing field with Democrats.

The former president began to change his mind when he voted early in the Florida primary in August. The Republican National Committee, co-chaired by Trump’s daughter-in-law Lara Trump, has poured resources into programs to encourage Republicans to vote early.

Michael McDonald, a political scientist at the University of Florida, said the data he compiled showed that most early voters were highly propensity to vote, meaning they weren’t new voters. They either voted in 2020 or had already decided who to vote for and wanted to do so early.

“This seems to be more of a timing shift than a party shift,” McDonald said. “Democrats are still accumulating more early votes, just with less of an advantage over Republicans.”

Both sides may have anticipated this trend, according to Tom Bonnier, a Democratic data strategist. More Democrats are turning to in-person voting on Election Day this year than in 2020, while Republicans have devoted significant resources to encouraging early voting.

It is unclear what impact these trends will have on the election outcome. Early voting data only shows which party voters are registered for, not who they are voting for.

Mark Halperin, a veteran political reporter and editor-in-chief of the 2WAY video news channel, said on October 22 that survey data from early voters in several battleground states showed that Mr. Trump was performing so well that he could defeat Ms. Harris if the US election were held right now.

“Either Republicans are back to where they were or Democrats are in significant decline,” said Republican pollster Paul Bentz. “In short, it’s too early to tell.”

The effectiveness of Mr. Trump’s message will be evident in the numbers over the next two weeks, McDonald said. One factor that could hinder the former president is that younger voters tend to vote later, and they could lean toward Ms. Harris.

Trump campaign officials have been pleased that early voting figures show Republicans are eroding the Democratic advantage compared to the same period in 2020.

"It's too early to declare victory, but the changes in our direction are very positive," said James Blair, the campaign's political director.

“They did a good job of getting people out to vote early,” said Sam Almy, a Democratic strategist who tracks the battleground state of Arizona. “I think they realized that early voting is easy, convenient, and not a gamble on Election Day turnout.”