Climate change: Not somewhere far away, right in front of every Vietnamese person

According to the Lunar calendar, there is still more than a week left until the beginning of Summer (May 5, 2024). However, many extreme weather phenomena such as intense heat, thunderstorms, hail, etc. have continuously appeared in many provinces and cities across the country in the past month, causing heavy damage to people and property. The frequency of extreme weather phenomena due to the impact of climate change like this is increasing.

Climate change is present before the eyes of every Vietnamese person, happening every day and every hour, directly affecting the lives and production activities of many families and people, affecting issues of agriculture, water resources, environment and ecosystems, economy and society.

According to the report of the Standing Office of the Steering Committee for Natural Disaster Prevention and Search and Rescue of the provinces of Ha Giang, Lao Cai, Tuyen Quang, Yen Bai, Cao Bang, Bac Kan, Lang Son, Thai Nguyen, Son La, Phu Tho and Quang Ninh, the damage caused by rain accompanied by thunderstorms and tornadoes that occurred from the night of April 19 to April 22 was very severe.

Hail and thunderstorms killed a 5-year-old girl in Dong Van district (Ha Giang) due to a collapsed house and injured dozens of people in Yen Bai, Phu Tho, and Cao Bang.

A hailstorm occurred on the afternoon of April 24 in Van Ho district (Son La), causing property damage to people.

Meanwhile, Ninh Thuan and Binh Thuan are experiencing the peak of drought, many lakes have dried up, fish have died, and people are facing difficulties in life and agricultural production.

On April 17, the Southern Hydrometeorological Station reported on the saline intrusion situation in the Southwest region in the coming days. Accordingly, due to the continued severe heat and low water sources from upstream, saline intrusion continues to occur in the Southwest.

The Southern Hydrometeorological Station assessed that since the beginning of the year, the entire Southern region in general and the Mekong Delta provinces in particular have had very little rain, temperatures have increased, heat waves have appeared early and lasted for a long time, evaporation has been strong, and drought has occurred over a large area. At the same time, the water source from the upper Mekong River flowing into the Mekong River is lower than the average of many years in the same period.

This situation has caused many provinces and cities to lack water for daily life and production. In Ca Mau, rivers, canals and streams have dried up, accompanied by subsidence and landslides. Saltwater intrusion is severe, deep into the fields.

Fish ponds in Ham Thuan Nam district, Binh Thuan province have run dry and fish are dying everywhere. (Photo: Nguyen Gia)

Severe heat waves of over 40 degrees Celsius have also occurred in many localities in recent days. On April 14, many places in the North and Central regions recorded the highest temperature of over 40 degrees Celsius, such as: Song Ma (Son La) 41 degrees Celsius, Muong Lay (Dien Bien) 40 degrees Celsius, Tuong Duong (Nghe An) 40.3 degrees Celsius... In particular, Yen Chau (Son La) recorded the highest temperature of the day at 42.2 degrees Celsius.

According to the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, from March 21 to April 20, the average temperature in the North, North Central and Central regions will generally be 2-3 degrees Celsius higher, in some places 3-4 degrees Celsius higher, and in the remaining areas 1-2 degrees Celsius higher than the average of many years.

During the heat waves that occurred during this time, some meteorological stations recorded absolute daily maximum temperatures that exceeded historical values ​​and set the highest temperature values ​​in the observed data series.

From April 1-20, the highest temperature on April 3 in Huong Son (Ha Tinh) was recorded at 40.5 degrees Celsius, exceeding the historical record of 40.4 degrees Celsius in 2016. In Bien Hoa (Dong Nai) on April 9, the highest temperature of the day was 40 degrees Celsius, 1 degree Celsius higher than the historical value observed in April 2020...

Commenting on unusual weather phenomena, Mr. Nguyen Hong Sinh - Deputy Director of Hai Phong Hydrometeorological Station gave a specific example of climate change in Hai Phong.

Mr. Sinh said that Hai Phong is a coastal city in the Northeast region. In recent years, this city has been clearly affected by climate change.

This is reflected in prolonged and unusual cold spells, along with historically high summer temperatures. Storms, tropical depressions and other dangerous weather phenomena are occurring more frequently and with greater intensity.

Mr. Sinh cited some typical cases such as January 2016, Hai Phong recorded a historic cold spell lasting 6 days from January 23-28. The lowest temperature in history was observed on January 24 at Phu Lien Meteorological Station at 4.5 degrees Celsius.

On June 3, 2017, Hai Phong recorded exceptionally severe heat with the highest temperature reaching a historical threshold of 39.5 degrees Celsius.

On New Year's Eve 2020 (January 24, 2020), hail appeared in the northern mountainous region from noon to evening, until the night of the same day and into the early morning of January 25. Hail appeared in the midlands and coastal areas (including Hai Phong). On January 25 (the first day of the Lunar New Year), Hai Phong had heavy to very heavy rain.

"This is a rare phenomenon on New Year's Day," said Mr. Nguyen Hong Sinh.

Prolonged and unusual cold spells, summer temperatures reaching historic highs... are clear signs of climate change. (Illustration: Khong Chi - Ngo Nhung)

According to analysis by Dr. Vu Van Thang (Director of the Center for Meteorology and Climate Change - Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Climate Change, Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment), Vietnam is one of the countries heavily affected by climate change.

In recent times, under the impact of climate change, natural disasters have become more and more severe, increasing in both intensity and frequency. Record heat in many places in the North, heavy rains causing landslides in many places in the North, Central Highlands, riverbank and coastal erosion in the South.

Climate change affects all aspects of social life such as agriculture, water resources, environment and ecosystems, economy and society.

According to statistics, in 2020, the country had 16/22 types of natural disasters, with 14 storms and tropical depressions; 120 flash floods and landslides; 90 earthquakes; 265 thunderstorms, tornadoes, lightning... causing 357 deaths and missing people, with total damage of over 39,962 billion VND.

In 2021, the country had 18/22 types of natural disasters with 12 storms and tropical depressions in the East Sea; 258 thunderstorms, tornadoes, heavy rains; 310 floods, flash floods, landslides; 191 riverbank and coastal landslides; 14 strong winds, big waves at sea and 2 widespread heat waves. Natural disasters in 2021 left 108 people dead, missing, 95 injured; estimated damage of more than 5,200 billion VND.

In 2022, the country will experience 21 out of 22 types of natural disasters (except tsunamis), with 9 storms and tropical depressions in the East Sea. Prolonged heavy rains in the North will cause landslides, flash floods in mountainous areas, and flooding in urban areas and industrial zones (April, May, June).

Also in this year, in the Central region, 3 consecutive storms made landfall and the floods following the storms caused serious damage to people and property. Of which, storm No. 4 (Noru) reached the strongest intensity, level 14-15, gusting to level 17, almost reaching super typhoon level in the East Sea, on September 28, causing very heavy rain in the southern provinces of the Northern Delta and from Thanh Hoa to Quang Ngai, Nghe An in particular had very heavy rain reaching 300-500mm.

Along with that, heavy rain after storm No. 5 caused floods above alert level 3 on rivers from Quang Binh - Thua Thien Hue; particularly serious flooding, up to 1.5-2m in some places in Da Nang. High tides, combined with strong winds at sea caused large waves of 1.5-2m in the West Sea area, causing overflow and landslides of the West Sea dike, Ca Mau province. Many earthquakes occurred consecutively in Kon Plong district, Kon Tum province...

Natural disasters in 2022 killed or left missing 175 people, causing economic damage of nearly 19,500 billion VND.

In 2023, the country will experience 21/22 types of natural disasters with 5 storms and 3 tropical depressions in the East Sea; 179 heavy rains, floods, flash floods, landslides; 87 thunderstorms, lightning, hail; 342 riverbank and coastal landslides; 334 earthquakes; 20 widespread heat waves, many places have temperatures exceeding history, of which the temperature of 44.2 degrees Celsius in Tuong Duong (Nghe An) on May 7, 2023 set a new record for Vietnam. Natural disasters left 169 people dead and missing, causing damage of about 8,236 billion VND.

According to information from the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment, in recent years in our country, extreme climate phenomena continue to be recorded with greater intensity and higher frequency.

Observation data over 60 years (1958 - 2018) show that the average annual temperature across the country increased by about 0.89 degrees Celsius, rainfall decreased in the northern regions by 1-7% and increased in the southern regions by 6-21%, the number of strong storms increased, and the highest and lowest daily temperatures increased.

Monitoring data also show that the number of hot days has increased in most areas; droughts have increased nationwide; the number of days with severe cold has decreased; extreme rain has increased; the average sea level of coastal and island stations has increased by 2.74 mm/year, of which the period from 1993 to 2018 increased by 3.0 mm/year.

According to the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, in 2024, heat waves will come early, and the number of heat waves may be more frequent and more severe than the average of many years. This summer, provinces and cities across the country will experience heat waves and severe heat waves. The heat wave in the North will focus on May and June, and the heat wave in the Central region may last until July and August.

In the Central Highlands and the South, it is likely to last until about the first half of May 2024.

Drought in the Central Highlands and the South is forecast to last until about the first half of May 2024. In the Central region, drought is likely to appear and last from the second half of April to July 2024. In particular, drought in the Central Central and South Central regions may continue into August 2024.

Commenting on this issue, Mr. Hoang Phuc Lam - Deputy Director of the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting said that the development of ENSO will cause natural disasters in 2024 to be affected by both the El Nino phenomenon in the first half of the year and the La Nina phenomenon in the second half of the year.

According to Mr. Lam, the storm season in the East Sea may begin from around the end of June 2024. This year's storm season will be mainly influenced by the La Nina phase. Therefore, storms will be more concentrated in the last months of the year (from around September to November).

Along with the storms concentrated at the end of the year, heavy rain will also occur frequently in the Central region, especially the Central and South Central regions.

With the La Nina scenario appearing, developing as forecasted and starting to impact our country right at the time when rain and storms are concentrated in the Central region, the storm, rain and flood season in the second half of 2024 may have many complicated developments that require attention and response.