Ms. Harris is losing her poll advantage over Mr. Trump

After President Joe Biden announced he was dropping out of the race and Vice President Kamala Harris took his place, the Democratic candidate gained a huge advantage in the polls. Many Democrats compared Ms. Harris to former President Barack Obama during the 2008 election season.

However, recent polls show that Ms. Harris' advantage over Republican rival Donald Trump nationally and in some battleground states is gradually narrowing.

Her approval rating has dropped 4 percentage points over the past month, according to the Decision Desk HQ poll. In the past two weeks, support has shifted slightly toward Trump in several battleground states. In Wisconsin, Harris had a two-point lead over Trump, but the two candidates are now tied.

In Michigan, the vice president went from leading by a point to trailing by the same margin. In Pennsylvania, Trump erased a one-point gap to tie Harris.

The margins in these polls are still within the margin of error, but in a race that hasn't changed much in recent months, the swing is still notable, says Scott Tranter, head of data science at Decision Desk HQ.

Some Democrats have recently become concerned that Harris’s approval ratings have stalled. “We should be on an upward trajectory. That’s the sign of a winning campaign,” said a Democratic strategist.

Another strategist agreed. “This is not the outcome we expected with less than three weeks to go. It’s worrying,” he said.

Ms. Harris gave her first interview on October 16.Fox News, a station considered Mr. Trump’s home turf. The move was considered bold and some said she would not have done so if she had maintained her momentum.

Former President Obama, who is campaigning for Ms Harris, was criticized last week for targeting black voters who do not support the vice president. His tone was seen as reflecting Democratic concerns about this year's election.

Other polls also showed a shift in Trump’s favor over the past week. According to a survey conducted by election analyst Nate Silver, Trump’s approval rating increased by one percentage point from last week in Wisconsin and Nevada.

However, these results do not mean the election is over. "There has never been an election where the forecasts were so 50-50," Silver said.

Tranter also stressed that he had never seen a race this close in modern history. "No candidate should be surprised if they win or lose," he said.

Poll ofNBC NewsThe polls released this week also show a tight race, with both candidates at 48% each. Harris had held a 5-point lead over Trump for a month after the presidential debate.

The poll also highlights a significant shift in voters’ views of Ms. Harris. A month ago, 48% of respondents had a positive impression of the vice president, while 45% had an unfavorable view. A month later, the number of people who had a positive impression of Ms. Harris had dropped to 43%, while 49% had a negative view.

Not all the news is bleak for Harris, however. A Marist poll released on October 16 found her leading Trump among likely voters nationwide by 52% to 47%, up from a two-point lead earlier this month.

Harris’s campaign appears unconcerned about the polls. “I rarely look at them,” said senior adviser David Plouffe. “If it shows Harris up 4 or 5 points in a battleground state or Trump is ahead, don’t pay attention. It’s a very tight race.”

Julian Zelizer, professor of history and public affairs at Princeton University, New Jersey, said Mr. Trump has some advantages, but the chances are equal for both candidates.

“The actual match is what matters most,” he said, implying that whichever side attracts more voters could win.

According to Nate Silver, Ms. Harris has a 50.3% chance of winning and Mr. Trump has a 49.4% chance. In the battleground states, Mr. Trump leads in Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina. Ms. Harris is ahead in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Both candidates are capable of closing the gap in every state.

According to Professor Zelizer, during the election campaign, Mr. Trump continuously made threats, attacks, spread false stories about immigrants, and caused controversy with his views on race and gender, but support for him did not decrease.