.jpg "Real estate market in the south of Hai Duong city is bustling")
.jpg "Extremely dangerous forest fire risk in Kinh Mon, Chi Linh")
-ac017d3d3ce25d3405471795d6bb26f0.jpg "Gia Loc needs over 10 billion VND to invest in renovating and expanding landfills.")
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On June 10, Maybank Research Pte Ltd forecasted that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth of the six ASEAN member countries, including Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam, is estimated to reach 4.5% - 4.7% in 2024 and 2025, from 4.0% in 2023.
In the report titled “ASEAN Matters: New Pioneers”, the researchers said the GDP growth recovery will be driven by manufacturing and exports, especially electronics, which supported a modest growth recovery in the first half of this year.
Maybank also said that artificial intelligence (AI) and the data center boom, along with expanding global demand for electronics, are brightening the outlook for trade and foreign direct investment (FDI).
Referring to interest rates, the report said that despite rising interest rates, the trend of increasing economic activities has led to loan growth across ASEAN. “Visa exemptions in Malaysia, Thailand and Singapore, along with increased flight capacity, are driving Chinese tourists to ASEAN.”
Commenting on ASEAN inflation, Maybank said it has fallen sharply from its 2023 peak as supply chain disruptions from the Russia-Ukraine crisis dissipate. “However, ASEAN central banks are constrained in cutting policy rates as the US economy remains ‘on the mend’ and higher rates for an extended period have added to the pressure on emerging market currencies. We expect the US Federal Reserve to cut rates by 50 basis points in 2024, starting in September,” the report added.
Maybank also noted that ASEAN has emerged as a preferred destination as multinational companies diversify their manufacturing supply chains. This has led to a surge in FDI approvals and applications in several ASEAN countries, including Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam and Indonesia.
Private investment surged in the first quarter of this year in Malaysia, Vietnam, Thailand and Indonesia, suggesting that the recent surge in FDI commitments is materializing.
ASEAN countries are securing investment not only from the US and its allies, but also from China, whose FDI has surged in Vietnam, Thailand and Malaysia since reopening. “The top industries that are seeing strong exports are electric vehicles, solar panels and technology providers.”
Malaysia appears to be attracting the biggest investment in data centers, as AI drives a boom in investment in the sector across ASEAN. Malaysia has attracted investments from Google, Nvidia, GDS and Equinix, while Thailand has received investments from Amazon, Microsoft and Google.
Meanwhile, Indonesia has attracted Amazon, Alibaba and Edgnex, among others, and Vietnam's nascent market has received commitments from the likes of Keppel, Alibaba and Gaw Capital.
