Ukraine loses ground on the battlefield just before Trump takes office as US President

According to CNN on January 13, with just one week left until US President-elect Donald Trump returns to the White House, Ukraine is preparing for some difficult choices in the coming months.

The country's army is at a disadvantage against Russia on some parts of the long front line, it lacks experienced soldiers and it is uncertain that military aid will continue to arrive at the current pace.

In Kiev, the authorities wait and watch for signals from Moscow and Washington, repeating almost daily their desire for a “just peace.” Any plans to reclaim Russian-controlled territory are on hold indefinitely.

Despite some losses, Russian forces continue to advance in the Donetsk region. The Russians' daily advances are measured in fields and streets as they inch closer to the region's industrial belt.

Ukrainian units are outnumbered in the east. A Ukrainian military commander said small groups of Russian infantry were launching attacks from multiple directions at once, making it difficult for Ukrainian forces to concentrate their fire.

“While the correlation between forces in terms of tactical firepower, drones and long-range strikes does not appear to favour either side by a significant margin, manpower remains the key differentiator between Russia and Ukraine,” said retired Australian Army Major General Mick Ryan.

According to geo-located video, Russian units are now 5 kilometers from the center of Pokrovsk and have taken control of Kurakhove and part of the town of Toretsk. The commander of a Ukrainian battalion near Pokrovsk said Russian forces there have increased artillery fire and attacks with glide bombs.

Ukrainian military spokesman Viktor Tregubov told state television that fighting was continuing around Kurakhove and that Ukrainian units were holding out at the power plant, "so we cannot say that the Russian army has completely captured the town. But of course, most of the town has been reduced to rubble."

Kiev’s goal is to protect what it still holds. Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov told a meeting with allies and partners – the Ukrainian Defense Contact Group – in Germany last week that Ukraine’s priority this year will be to stabilize the frontline and strengthen its defense capabilities.

Contact Group members have pledged more than $126 billion in security assistance to Ukraine over the past three years. Partners also pledged additional assistance in Germany last week, including 30,000 drones over the next year and more air defense systems.

US Defense Secretary Austin said on January 11 that the alliance “must continue to stand with Ukraine – and increase its support for Ukraine in negotiations that will one day end the war.” But the burning question is: when is that “one day?” “I’m not going to speculate on where they’ll go,” Austin said of the incoming Trump administration.

German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius even suggested that the incoming US administration might stop the Contact Group meetings, saying that if so "they will need to continue in another form".

Prospects for peace negotiations

Against this backdrop, negotiations to end the conflict now seem unlikely. “The reason is simple. Russia is not ready for any compromise. It wants to win. Success can be achieved on the battlefield or at the negotiating table, but it must be unquestionable.

In President Putin's view, Ukraine must be defeated, and the West must admit Ukraine's defeat – and its own – publicly,” said political scientist Arkady Moshes, Director of the Russia and EU Program at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs.

Mr Trump's special envoy for Ukraine, former US general Keith Kellogg, said last week that he hoped to come up with a solid and lasting solution to the conflict within 100 days.

President-elect Trump himself said during the campaign that he would end the fighting within 24 hours of taking office, but when asked more recently about when he might end the conflict, he said: "I hope within six months. No, I think, I hope it's before six months."

It is unclear whether the Kremlin's unwavering goal fits with the plans of the incoming Trump administration. Ryan believes that Putin "has the ability to ensure that no matter what, Trump's 100-day goal will fail."

For his part, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has given little indication of what parameters might be acceptable for Ukraine. “We will definitely stand firm and achieve lasting peace,” he said on January 11. President Zelensky’s priority is to present the situation in Ukraine directly to Mr. Trump.

Ukrainian Foreign Ministry spokesman Heorhii Tykhyi said on the same day that Kiev was preparing for negotiations at the "highest level" and that "our position is clear: everyone in Ukraine wants to end the war on fair terms for Ukraine."