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In 2024, the Russia-Ukraine conflict continues to escalate with important events such as Russia changing its "Nuclear Doctrine" and Ukraine receiving military aid from the West. It is predicted that in 2025, the situation may become more serious or open up an opportunity for peace, depending on the actions of the parties involved.
The Russia-Ukraine conflict continues into 2025 after spending 2024 escalating in both scale and severity, overshadowing any peace efforts.
Looking back at the war in 2024
On New Year's Day 2024, Russia retaliated against Ukraine's Belgorod offensive by attacking Kharkiv with drones. During a visit to a military hospital after these mutual attacks, Russian President Vladimir Putin stated: "We will intensify the attacks. We are doing it today and we will continue to do it tomorrow." This is seen as a stance on the likely trajectory of the war in 2024.
January 2024 was then marked by a series of meetings between Western leaders (mainly from the US and EU) and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, as well as calls for continued support for Kiev.
By February 1, the call for support was officially answered, with the 27 EU member states agreeing on an additional €50 billion ($54 billion) aid package for Ukraine, along with advanced weaponry such as ATACMS missiles provided by the US.
In March 2024, Türkiye emerged as a potential mediator, hosting the leaders of Russia and Ukraine in an effort to restart negotiations, continuing mediation efforts despite Western calls for actions that risk escalating the conflict. Earlier in the month, Turkey hosted the Russian Foreign Minister at the Antalya Diplomatic Forum. The following week, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was hosted in Istanbul.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan affirmed: "We will continue to work to end the conflict with a just peace based on negotiations," illustrating a balanced and constructive approach to the conflict.
March also saw significant political developments. Along with President Putin’s re-election in Russia, the month marked a significant shift in the discourse surrounding the conflict. On March 22, Russia for the first time called the situation in Ukraine a “war” rather than a “special military operation.”
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov outlined Russia's new stance on the conflict, declaring: "We are in a state of war. Yes, it started as a special military operation, but as soon as the West became a participant in this event and sided with Ukraine, it became a war for us."
That same month, the Zaporizhzhia region became a new flashpoint with clashes around a nuclear power plant, raising fears of a potential nuclear disaster.
Peace efforts in 2024 have not yielded the expected results. The June 2024 “Ukraine Peace Summit” hosted by Switzerland failed to produce clear commitments due to Russia’s absence. Meanwhile, NATO reaffirmed its commitment to support Ukraine, including the delivery of F-16 fighter jets in July, adding to the tensions.
Dangerous escalation
By September 2024, the escalation of the war had entered a new phase. On September 1, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov indicated that Russia's "Nuclear Doctrine" would be revised.
Another important development in September was UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres’s public admission that the UN Security Council had been ineffective in ending the fighting in Ukraine. In October, President Zelensky proposed a plan to end the conflict that included Ukraine’s NATO membership. However, the plan received no response from Russia.
In November 2024, Donald Trump's re-election in the United States created new expectations. Mr. Trump declared: "I can end the fighting within 24 hours", but at the same time, Ukraine's use of long-range ATACMS missiles and Russia's response, including signing a revised "Nuclear Doctrine", made the prospect of peace more uncertain than ever.
By late 2024, the conflict was increasingly becoming a war of attrition. Repeated missile strikes by Russia and Ukraine had created a tense atmosphere, with neither side gaining a clear advantage. The assassination on December 17 of General Igor Kirillov, head of Russia’s nuclear and chemical defenses, further deepened the instability, leading to Moscow’s retaliatory airstrikes on Kiev.
Forecast 2025
The year 2025 could see the Russia-Ukraine conflict enter a new phase, with the potential for escalation or significant progress in peace efforts. Experts say the prospects for peace will depend on two main factors: Russia’s political posture under President Putin and President-elect Trump’s ability to deliver on his pledge to end the conflict when he takes office on January 20.
Without a breakthrough in negotiations, the war risks dragging on, causing increasingly severe humanitarian and economic damage. Estimates of the number of people killed on both sides have already exceeded 500,000, while the total financial cost of the conflict has surpassed $1 trillion. These figures underscore the brutality of the war, with far-reaching regional and global consequences.
In that context, some international experts warn that military solutions will not bring sustainable results. As Kenneth Waltz, an international relations theorist, said: “In war, there is no victory, only varying degrees of defeat.” This statement clearly reflects the current state of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and is also a warning about the challenges ahead in the search for peace.
