Prospects for a ceasefire in Ukraine in 2025

Since the US presidential election, Donald Trump’s victory has fueled speculation about what it means for the conflict in Ukraine. With Trump’s pledge to end the war quickly, and his warnings about withholding financial and military aid to Ukraine to force Kiev to negotiate with Moscow, many have questioned whether the conflict will end by 2025. While it is impossible to predict with certainty, Trump’s victory may have accelerated the process, making a ceasefire more likely than ever. However, that ceasefire may be on terms favorable to Russia.

2025 could be a turning point in the war. If the US cuts or stops financial and military aid to Ukraine, Kiev will not be able to defend itself for long. While aid from the EU and other NATO allies will continue, Ukraine will be forced to conserve resources and gradually move toward ceasefire negotiations.

Negotiations could begin in 2025. Russia has several reasons to accept a deal. First, it would be able to retain much of the territory it has captured, increasing its strategic distance from NATO. Second, it would ensure its goal of weakening Ukraine and preventing it from joining NATO. Third, a deal could open the door to easing Western sanctions and normalizing relations with the EU and the US. Fourth, Russia would be able to focus its resources on other strategic goals.

For Ukraine, the ceasefire still offers some hope. The end of the war will allow millions of Ukrainians to return to normal life. Many surveys show that some Ukrainians are willing to accept losing territory in exchange for peace.

The EU and other international organizations would help rebuild Ukraine, bringing new economic opportunities. But the question of long-term security guarantees, such as a commitment to protect it from NATO, would be ambiguous. Russia is adamantly opposed, while both the US and Germany are wary of admitting Ukraine. Kiev would likely receive promises of future training and equipment, but not NATO membership.

A possible ceasefire would include the establishment of a demilitarized zone between Russian and Ukrainian territory, which could be patrolled by the sides themselves or by international forces, although Russia would likely object to NATO involvement.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently said that Ukraine has every chance to end the war with Russia next year. According to the Ukrainian state news agency Ukrinform on November 23, President Zelensky said that the war will end when the US takes a stronger stance, when the countries of the Global South support Ukraine and support ending the war.

Mr Zelensky also said Ukraine was waiting for President-elect Donald Trump's proposals on ending the war, adding that it was likely to see these proposals by January 2025.

The peace process may be long, fraught with disruptions and challenges. But negotiations scheduled for 2025 or later still offer a chance to end the conflict, offering hope to millions of Ukrainians who have returned to a peaceful life after years of war.