Israel prepares ceasefire plan in Lebanon ahead of Trump inauguration

According to The Washington Post, Ron Dermer, Israel's Minister of Strategic Affairs, chose Trump's Mar-a-Lago resort as the first stop on his trip to the US on November 10, before heading to the White House to update Biden administration officials on the status of the negotiations in Lebanon, indicating a rapid shift in US political focus following Trump's election victory.

The talks at Mr Trump’s Florida estate focused on an Israeli proposal for a ceasefire in Lebanon, in collaboration with the West and Russia. An Israeli military official also said plans were being drawn up to intensify ground operations in Lebanon if the talks ultimately failed.

“It is understandable that Israel will give something to Mr. Trump... and by January next year there will be an agreement on Lebanon,” commented an Israeli official.

Trump has previously said he wants to end wars in the Middle East, but he also told Netanyahu in a phone call last month: Do what you have to do with Hezbollah and Hamas. It is unclear whether the proposed ceasefire in Lebanon discussed at Mar-a-Lago would have any impact on stalled ceasefire and hostage-release talks in Gaza.

Mr. Frank Lowenstein, former special envoy for Israel-Palestine negotiations under President Barack Obama, commented that Mr. Netanyahu will only focus on pleasing Mr. Trump.

Meanwhile, Prime Minister Netanyahu revealed that he had spoken to Mr Trump three times in recent days and that the two men saw great opportunities for Israel, especially in advancing peace. This is a remarkable statement after more than a year of devastating war in Gaza and six weeks after Israel expanded its military campaign against Hezbollah by sending troops into southern Lebanon.

The Israeli prime minister has been planning for a new era in the United States since before the November 5 election. Israeli officials say Netanyahu has been in constant contact with Trump. Dermer has been in touch with Kushner, who helped broker normalization deals between four Arab states and Israel during Trump’s first term and has personal and financial ties to the region.

Kushner could play an advisory role in future negotiations on normalizing relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia, even if he is not appointed to a formal White House position, according to a former first-term Trump official.

Under the terms of the emerging Lebanon deal, Hezbollah fighters would have to withdraw from the area north of the Litani River - the northern boundary of a UN-supervised buffer zone established after the 2006 conflict between Israel and Hezbollah.

Since October 2023, following Hamas attacks on southern Israel, Lebanese militants have used the area to launch thousands of rockets and missiles into Israel, killing 45 civilians and 31 soldiers, forcing some 60,000 people to flee their homes.

A person close to Hezbollah said the group was ready to withdraw its fighters north of the Litani River under the temporary ceasefire. According to Israeli officials, the Lebanese army will control the border area for an initial period of 60 days, under US and British supervision.

Netanyahu may be aiming for an interim deal while President Joe Biden is still in office, leaving the final deal for Trump to take credit for, Lowenstein said. “The only thing Netanyahu cares about more than Trump is domestic politics, and getting the Israeli people back to the north is a big goal that he may want to do right away,” he added.

The key elements of the deal are similar to previous rounds of talks and are consistent with Mr Trump’s desire to end Israel’s multi-front war, but the plan has yet to be formally presented to Hezbollah. The proposal would allow Israeli troops to operate across the border in the event of a violation, something Lebanese officials have found unacceptable.

“Can any sane person believe that we would agree to an agreement or a solution that would only serve the interests of Israel and would harm the interests and sovereignty of Lebanon?” said Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, an ally of Hezbollah, on November 12.

A person close to Hezbollah revealed that the group's conditions are clear: Israel must be banned from carrying out operations in Lebanese territory.

“This is a deal that Netanyahu has been waiting to give to Trump,” said Israel Ziv, a former director of the Israeli military’s operations department. “But the wait has come at a cost.” Hezbollah has recently rebounded and killed more Israeli soldiers in the south.

According to Al Jazeera, Hezbollah recently announced that it had used unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) for the first time to attack the headquarters of the Israeli military General Staff in Tel Aviv on November 13. According to Hezbollah's statement, the movement's gunmen used a group of suicide UAVs for the first time to attack the Hakirya base, where the Ministry of War (i.e. the Israeli Ministry of Defense) and the General Staff and the command headquarters of the air force are located.

In addition, Hezbollah also conducted another UAV attack on the Israeli army's Amos logistics base in the city of Afula, about 55 km from the border with Lebanon.