Are sanctions causing a series of horrific plane crashes in Iran?

Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian were confirmed dead on May 20 after their helicopter crashed in a mountainous area bordering Azerbaijan amid dense fog. Six others on board, including the crew, were also killed.

The US-made Bell 212 helicopter that carried Mr Raisi is believed to be decades old. Western sanctions imposed on Iran since the 1979 revolution and then over its nuclear programme have made it difficult for Tehran to obtain spare parts or buy new aircraft.

Since the first US sanctions against Iran 45 years ago, Iran's economy has been deeply affected and the country's airlines have been hit hard.

But the tense geopolitical situation with Iran’s neighbors, and especially its strained relations with Israel and the United States, has also led to fatal mistakes that have killed hundreds. Here’s a look at some of Iran’s biggest aviation accidents since 1979, and how sanctions have affected the sector.

Iran's biggest aviation incidents

According to the Geneva-based Bureau of Aircraft Accidents Archives (B3A), from 1979 to 2023, Iran witnessed 253 plane crashes that killed 3,335 people.

January 21, 1980: A Boeing 727-100 operated by Iran Air crashes into the side of a mountain in the Alborz Mountains, killing all 128 people on board. The failure of the instrument landing system (ILS) and poor visibility due to nighttime and bad weather are believed to have caused the crash. The incident occurred shortly after Iranian air traffic controllers ended a strike.

November 3, 1986: A Lockheed C-130 Hercules operated by the Iranian air force crashes into a mountainside in Sistan and Baluchistan province, killing all 103 people on board, including 96 soldiers. Experts say a fault in the altimeter, used to measure altitude, may have caused the crash.

July 13, 1988: An Airbus A300 operated by Iran Air is hit by a missile fired from the US Navy cruiser USS Vincennes at Qeshm Island after it was mistaken for a military aircraft. The incident killed all 290 people on board and is the deadliest aviation accident in Iran's history.

February 12, 2002: An Iran Airtour Tupolev TU-154 crashed into a mountainside in Khorramabad after the crew failed to realize the plane had veered off course, killing all 119 people on board, including four Spanish nationals. Poor visibility due to weather may have been a factor in the crash.

February 19, 2003: An Ilyushin II-76 operated by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) crashed into a mountain near Kerman airport upon landing, killing all 275 people on board. The crew had made an early descent in poor visibility.

July 15, 2009: A Tupolev TU-154 operated by Caspian Airlines crashed into an open field in Qazvin, killing all 168 people on board. The crash was blamed on a number of technical faults, including engine failure and faulty hydraulic and fuel lines.

January 8, 2020: A Boeing 737-800 operated by Ukraine International Airlines was shot down by two missiles minutes after takeoff in Sabashahr, Tehran, killing all 176 people on board. The government said it was “human error” after the plane was mistaken for a “hostile target.”

How do sanctions affect Iran's aviation industry?

Iran's aviation sector was hit particularly hard after sanctions were imposed in 1979, as the government was unable to import new aircraft. Iran saw a spike in fatal plane crashes in the 1980s, 1990s, and early 2000s.

At the heart of US sanctions on Iran's aviation sector is a ban on the country's import of any aircraft or aircraft components made with more than 10% US components. That has ruled out Iran's ability to buy new Western planes or helicopters, while also making it difficult for Tehran to find the parts it needs to maintain its aging fleet.

Some Russian jets also rely on American parts, so sourcing even those is difficult for Iran, despite the close ties between Tehran and Moscow.

According to the Washington Near East Institute, as of April 2019, 23 Iranian airlines operated 156 of the country's 300 aircraft, indicating that nearly half of Iran's aircraft were grounded because they had to wait for spare parts.

The need for frequent repairs has increased airfares in Iran and has also put economic strain on smaller aircraft manufacturers. Planes cannot be sent abroad for repairs and must be maintained domestically, with limited specialist manpower, Mohammad Mohammadi-Bakhsh, head of Iran’s aviation authority, the Civil Aviation Organization of Iran (CAO), told Fars news agency in 2022.

In 2015, the Iran nuclear deal, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), was signed. Under it, Iran agreed to stop producing materials that could be used to make nuclear weapons. In return, sanctions on the aviation sector were eased, allowing the country to buy aircraft from foreign manufacturers such as Airbus and Boeing.

But sanctions were reimposed when the US left the nuclear deal under former President Donald Trump in 2018. And according to the Washington Institute, the brief period when sanctions were lifted did little to help Iran: Iran ordered more than 200 aircraft from Western carriers in those three years, but only received three Airbus jets and 13 ATR turboprops — smaller planes — before the Trump administration reimposed sanctions.