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The Opta supercomputer predicts England will win EURO 2024, while the Octopus and Gemini models both choose France, and ChatGPT has a different prediction.
The EURO 2024 European Football Championship has begun with the first matches in German stadiums. Just before the tournament started, some supercomputers and AI also "showed off" their skills in predicting the championship odds of the teams.
Opta
First up is Opta (England), a machine described as "the big surprise analyst" among football fans and has accurately predicted the champions of several previous tournaments. The supercomputer's analysis is based on data from teams participating in EURO 2024 and ran 10,000 simulations. The parameters included include pre-tournament form, player form, history of matches between participating teams...
Opta believes England will be the champion of EURO 2024. Specifically, the simulation shows that the team captained by Harry Kane has a 48.2% chance of reaching the semi-finals, 31.1% chance of reaching the final and 19.9% chance of winning the championship trophy.
France are England's most formidable opponents, with a 48.1% chance of reaching the semi-finals, a 30.4% chance of reaching the final and a 19.1% chance of winning the title. Germany, Spain and Portugal have a 12.4%, 9.8% and 9.2% chance of winning the title respectively.
Before EURO 2024 kicked off, Opta predicted that hosts Germany would win their opening match. The result was a 5-1 opening win over Scotland - a team that the supercomputer said had just a 0.1% chance of winning.
Octopus
Meanwhile, the Belgian company Luzmo used the Octopus AI model and a private cloud platform to run a million simulations of European Championship matches. On average, out of 100 simulations, France won 22 times, the highest rate. Luzmo's home country, Belgium, had a 3.4% chance of winning the trophy.
“The model itself is essentially a matchup simulator that takes things like a team’s offensive rating, defensive rating, then factoring in potential goals and expected goals, and then compares it to other teams to come up with a final result,” Haroen Vermylen, CTO of Luzmo, told The Register.
AI Octopus also correctly predicted the Germany-Scotland match, saying there was a "76% chance" Germany would win. The model will be continually updated with scores and other metrics to refine the results over time, but for now, it thinks EURO 2024 will be a three-way race between France, Portugal and Croatia.
WHO
Most popular and free AI models like Google Gemini, Microsoft Copilot or OpenAI ChatGPT refuse to make predictions about the winning team.
However, the paid version of ChatGPT Plus, using the latest GPT-4o model, rates Germany as having a "high chance" of winning at home thanks to "a combination of youth and experience, a solid foundation from the Bundesliga and an impressive record in previous international tournaments".
Meanwhile, the Gemini Advance version gave the same result as AI Octopus that the trophy would go to France.
TB (according to VnExpress)
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