Philippines takes "multilateral" action in the East Sea

This move was seen by Jay Batongbacal, Director of the Institute of Maritime Affairs and Law of the Sea, as one of the ways for Manila to demonstrate a strong stance on the South China Sea (East Sea).

Strengthening the security umbrella

Security commitments between the Philippines and the United States have been stepped up this year, notably with a decision to nearly double the number of bases in the Southeast Asian nation that the U.S. military can access. Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. called this week’s three-day joint air and sea exercise a “significant initiative” to strengthen the two countries’ interoperability. The patrol will begin on Mavulis Island, the northernmost point of the Philippines, about 100 kilometers (62 miles) from Taiwan, according to Eugene Cabusao, spokesman for the Northern Luzon Command. The exercise will end in the West Philippine Sea, as Manila calls the waters within its Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) in the South China Sea.

The Philippine military announced that three naval vessels, two FA-50 light aircraft and an A-29B Super Tucano attack aircraft will participate in the operation, while the US deployed a littoral combat ship and a P8-A Poseidon maritime reconnaissance aircraft.

New “COC”?

Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. recently announced that Manila intends to discuss a separate code of conduct in the South China Sea with neighboring Southeast Asian countries such as Vietnam and Malaysia because negotiations on a similar issue with China have not progressed much.

Speaking at the Daniel K. Inouye Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies in Honolulu, the capital of Hawaii, on November 18, the Philippine President said: “The situation in the disputed waters is getting worse and worse due to China’s increasing aggression, while the negotiations between ASEAN and Beijing on the Code of Conduct in the South China Sea (COC) are very slow and limited.” In his speech, President Marcos also said that China is also “eyeing” reefs and deep waters “ever closer” to the Philippine coast.

A day earlier, in San Francisco (USA), after a discussion with Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum to discuss measures to reduce tensions in disputed waters, President Marcos said that both he and President Xi Jinping “have been working to find mechanisms to cool down tensions in the East Sea”, but did not give details.

In fact, the situation in the region has not improved as Beijing promised a year ago, but has gotten worse. A year ago, at a meeting in Phnom Penh to mark the 20th anniversary of the “historic” Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea (DOC), then-Chinese Premier Li Keqiang, along with the 10 member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), reaffirmed their adherence to “the purposes and principles of the Charter of the United Nations, the 1982 Convention on the Law of the Sea, the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation in Southeast Asia, the Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence, and many other universal principles recognized by international law, which serve as the basis for basic norms for relations between states.” Raymond Powell, director of the SeaLight Project at the Gordian Knot Center for National Security Initiative at Stanford University, assessed that the statement contained more ambition than the commitment in the 2002 DOC.

Southeast Asia expert Sebastian Strangio of The Diplomat said that the Philippine leader’s call for new regional cooperation clearly reflects the challenges that ASEAN is facing in resolving disputes in the South China Sea. Despite efforts since 2002, the possibility of ASEAN reaching a binding COC agreement after negotiations with China is very low. On the one hand, it is difficult for ASEAN to reconcile the interests of 10 members in the sovereignty and territorial disputes in the South China Sea. On the other hand, China is not sincere in negotiating to reach a fair and binding agreement.

Meanwhile, several Southeast Asian countries have yet to resolve their overlapping claims in the South China Sea, preventing the formation of a united front against Beijing’s excessive claims. An informal code of conduct among Vietnam, the Philippines and Malaysia could be a precursor to a resolution of their disputes, laying the groundwork for one of the broader regional consensuses on the South China Sea.

Faced with a China that chooses “force” to assert its claims, it seems more reasonable for other countries to invest all their diplomatic resources in narrowed multilateral negotiations than in an ASEAN framework operating on a consensus mechanism. The question is whether countries have enough “courage” to seize this opportunity.