The risk of Russia-Ukraine war casts a shadow over Asia

Any conflict on Ukraine’s border with Russia would have clear consequences for Asia, and China, Japan and India would do their best to avoid being caught in the crossfire.

However, in Europe and Australia, there are growing concerns that such a move is inevitable.

China is "pro-Russia" but opposes war

When Russian President Vladimir Putin met with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping just before the opening ceremony of the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics, they issued a remarkable 5,300-word joint statement describing the friendship between the two countries as having no limits.

Notably, China for the first time openly opposed the expansion of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), and also agreed with Russia in opposing Ukraine joining this military alliance.

"The parties oppose further enlargement of NATO and call on the alliance to abandon some Cold War-style approaches and respect the sovereignty, security and interests of other countries," the document said, although it did not mention Ukraine.

India stuck between Russia and the US

Last month, India decided to abstain from a vote to discuss the Ukraine crisis at the United Nations Security Council.

Russia, supported only by China, lost the vote. The vote resulted in 10 votes against, 2 in favor and 3 abstentions, leading to a Security Council meeting on January 31. India, Gabon and Kenya - all non-permanent members of the council - abstained.

The abstention allowed India to avoid being caught between the two superpowers, Russia and the United States. But Moscow still thanked New Delhi, a long-time partner since the Soviet era.

Japan cautiously shows solidarity with Ukraine

In a show of solidarity with Kiev, Japan's lower house of parliament passed a resolution saying Tokyo is deeply concerned and stands by the Ukrainian people who are hoping for the stability of their country and region.

But the resolution on February 8 omitted any direct mention of Russia, as policymakers carefully weighed their best approach in the worst-case scenario: a war.
Japan's security ally, the United States, is said to be urging the country to take a firm stance by imposing sanctions if tensions flare up, as well as joining other Western countries in supporting its ally.

Hopes and doubts about President Macron's foreign policy

European governments are expressing hope that a diplomatic initiative led by French President Emmanuel Macron can prevent Russia's military intervention in Ukraine and a wider security confrontation on the continent.

However, there is also much scepticism, particularly among central and eastern European governments, about what Mr Macron might have promised Russian President Vladimir Putin in exchange for easing tensions.

And while the focus is now on a diplomatic approach, Russia’s military buildup around Ukraine continues unabated, with the military intelligence community predicting that next week could be the climax of the crisis.

Calm atmosphere in Ukraine

Bomb shelters are ready. Self-defense training classes are held in case of conflict. Yet Ukrainians say they have remained calm, even if uneasy, as tensions with Russia mount.

Part of the reason lay in the belief that the involvement of other Western powers would act as a deterrent to any overt aggression.

"Many people do not believe that war can break out at any time, because the West is closely monitoring the situation on the Russia-Ukraine border. And we believe that the US is a strong deterrent force," Mykola Siruk, a contributor at the Glavcom Internet media agency in Ukraine, told The Straits Times.

Australia's cautious approach

At a security meeting in Canberra on the morning of February 7 between Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison and his cabinet, the opening items on the agenda were unusual, such as tensions with China or the COVID-19 pandemic.

Instead, the Cabinet's National Security Committee, consisting of the prime minister and seven senior ministers, began discussing the crisis in Ukraine.

Australia is not a member of NATO and does not often make events in Eastern Europe a priority, but it has been vocal in its concerns about the threat Russia poses to Ukraine.

Food prices, flights in Asia could be affected

Experts told the Straits Times that Singapore in particular, and Asia in general, should be on guard against rising food and other commodity costs, and prepare for risks to international air routes if tensions between Russia and Ukraine escalate into conflict.

The impact of the Moscow-Kiev conflict on Singapore may not be immediately apparent, they said, adding that Singapore may not take sides if the situation worsens.

Dr Ian Storey of the Yusof Ishak Institute noted that Ukraine is a major food exporter, and a prolonged conflict would affect its agricultural exports to the region. Ukraine's main exports include cereals and vegetable oils.

According to Tin Tuc newspaper