Which player will challenge for the title of King of Chess?

The Candidates (Challenge) tournament will begin on April 4 in Toronto, Canada, with eight players playing a double round-robin of standard chess, with color-changing pieces and points, until April 21. As usual, the winner will have the right to challenge for the title of Chess Champion - currently held by Chinese player Ding Liren.

The eight players competing in the tournament are Caruana, Hikaru Nakamura, Alireza Firouzja, Ian Nepomniachtchi, Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu, Gukesh Dommaraju, Vidit Gujrathi, and Nijat Abasov. Nepomniachtchi won the last two Challengers, in 2020 and 2022, but lost both title matches to Magnus Carlsen and Dinh. Caruana, who won the tournament in 2018, also lost the world final to Carlsen.

Candidates 2024 is expected to be exciting, with four first-time players participating: Praggnanandhaa, Gukesh, Vidit and Abasov. The tournament can also be divided into two generations of players, with three young talents in their twenties such as Firouzja, Praggnanandhaa and Gukesh.

According to data and simulation ofChess Numbers, Caruana has the best chance of winning the first prize, up to 36.1%, followed by Nakamura 24.7%. Firouzja and Nepomniachtchi have almost the same probability, respectively 10.6% and 10.4%. The two young Indian talents are behind with 7.7% and 6.5%. The chances for the remaining two players are no more than 4%.

Caruana has maintained his world number two ranking behind Carlsen for many years, with a steady standard level, as this is his fifth consecutive Challenger appearance. The Italian-American is known for his opening preparation and calculation skills, having just won the 2023 FIDE Circuit. As such, he is considered by Grandmaster Rafael Leitao to be the "strongest player of 2023", as Carlsen rarely plays standard chess.

Caruana's main rival is considered to be his compatriot Nakamura, who is nearly 30 Elo higher than third seed Firouzja. The oldest player in the tournament is a strong defender, good at all types of chess, but not as strong in the opening compared to Caruana.

Carlsen himself sees Caruana and Nakamura as the two favorites to win the 2024 Challenger. "If anyone other than these two wins, I will be very surprised," said the world number one. "Caruana is stronger than Nakamura in standard, but he often struggles against Ding. Nakamura is a tough opponent for the Chinese number one."

Dinh became the World Chess Champion after defeating Nepomniachtchi in the World Chess Championship final in Kazakhstan in April 2023. Dinh was promoted to the final because Carlsen had given up the World Chess Championship because he was no longer interested in the title. After winning the title, Dinh played less and did not achieve high results, currently ranked fifth in the world. "If Dinh plays like his recent form, or like the 2023 final, he will not have a chance to keep the title against Caruana or Nakamura," Carlsen said.