GRDP growth scenario - 'Guideline' for Hai Duong's economic development in 2025

A detailed, in-depth script

In 2025, the National Assembly assigned the Government an economic growth target of 6.5-7%, striving for growth of 7-7.5%. However, in Official Dispatch 140/CD-TTg dated December 27, 2024, the Prime Minister set a target of striving for double-digit economic growth, higher than the previously set target of 8%.

Just one week after the Prime Minister signed and issued Official Dispatch 140, Chairman of the Provincial People's Committee Le Ngoc Chau signed and issued the province's GRDP growth scenario plan for 2025. This is the first time Hai Duong has had a detailed, in-depth scenario, setting out goals, tasks, and solutions to promote the economy for each quarter of the year. Thereby demonstrating the determination and urgency of the head of the provincial government in managing the development of the whole province.

Accordingly, in 2025, the Provincial People's Committee is determined to successfully achieve the target of double-digit growth in gross regional domestic product (GRDP), striving for GRDP to reach VND 132,632 billion (at comparable prices), an increase of 12% compared to 2024 (higher than the target set by the Provincial Party Committee and Provincial People's Council of over 10% growth).

From this general target, Hai Duong sets out a growth roadmap for each quarter. According to the detailed data appendix attached to the growth scenario, the province's GRDP in the first quarter of 2025 will reach VND 30,209 billion, up 11% over the same period last year; in the second quarter of 2025, GRDP will reach VND 32,635 billion, up 11.8%; in the third quarter of 2025, GRDP will reach VND 32,428 billion, up 13.7% and in the fourth quarter of 2025, GRDP will reach VND 37,360 billion, up 11.5%.

In each quarter, the GRDP growth scenario specifies growth factors in each region, forecasts, analyzes, and evaluates factors affecting growth. Along with that, it points out a series of key tasks and solutions for departments, branches, and localities.

In the first quarter of 2025, the Provincial People's Committee requested to shorten the time for handling administrative procedures for granting investment registration certificates to 8 days (compared to the regulation of 15 days), except for cases that must be reported to competent authorities.

Time for granting construction permits and repair and renovation permits is reduced by 5 days (to 15 days); time for appraising feasibility study reports or adjusting feasibility study reports is reduced by 3 days (to 17 days).

Urge investors in industrial park infrastructure to speed up the construction progress of industrial park infrastructure. Focus on attracting investment in Lai Vu industrial park and expanded Phuc Dien industrial park.

Relevant departments, branches and units develop scenarios for the implementation progress and disbursement of public investment capital in 2025. Strive to disburse public investment capital from the state budget in the first quarter of about VND 1,958 billion, reaching 18.7% of the total assigned plan.

Complete projects and put into use the Intelligent Operations Monitoring Center (IOC), the Cyber ​​Security Monitoring Center (SOC); the platform for analyzing, synthesizing and processing data on BigData - the province's shared data warehouse; the virtual assistant platform on the provincial administrative procedure settlement information system; the Open Data Portal, the Foreign Affairs Portal and the investment promotion website...

In January 2025, complete the documents and procedures to submit to the Provincial People's Committee for approval of the investment policy for the urban, commercial, and mixed-use project in the center of Hai Duong City (Porcelain Factory area), along with 2 non-budget investment projects: the project to build a logistics port in Kinh Mon, and a centralized waste treatment plant with a capacity of 1,000 tons/day in Thanh Ha.

According to the scenario, by 2025 Hai Duong will attract foreign direct investment (FDI) of 1 billion USD or more, domestic investment of over 8,500 billion VND. Construction of 20 key and important projects will begin; 7 social housing development projects (equivalent to 4,515 apartments) will be launched...

For a strong economic Hai Duong

2025 is the final year of implementing the 5-year socio-economic development plan 2021-2025, which is of special significance, a year of acceleration, breakthrough, creating the foundation and premise for implementing the socio-economic development plan for the period 2026-2030. Striving for double-digit economic growth nationwide is not only a challenge, but also a strong aspiration of the country to rise in the New Era - the Era of national rise.

Regarding Hai Duong, Chairman of the Provincial People's Committee Le Ngoc Chau emphasized and determined that 2025 is the final year of the term, it is necessary to accelerate, make a breakthrough, focus on striving to successfully implement the socio-economic development goals of the entire term 2020-2025, while at the same time having to well implement the arrangement of the organizational apparatus; and successfully organizing the Party Congresses at all levels towards the 14th National Congress of the Party.

These are the tasks of the entire political system, the entire people and the business community, enterprises must join hands to carry out, seize the best opportunity to develop Hai Duong further, advance sooner to the goal of becoming a modern industrial province before 2030. To complete the above tasks, it requires Party committees and authorities at all levels in the province to innovate their thinking, be decisive in leadership and direction, create new momentum and new spirit.

The new highlight in the leadership and direction of the Provincial People's Committee in 2025 is to develop detailed scenarios for socio-economic management for each quarter and have scenarios for each field from public investment to budget collection.

In fact, the growth scenario has been implemented by Hai Duong for many years. However, in response to the Government's request to strive for double-digit economic growth, the provincial People's Committee leaders have directed advisory agencies such as the Provincial People's Committee Office, the Department of Planning and Investment, the General Statistics Office... to innovate in scenario development, in order to create a strong breakthrough in direction and administration.

Therefore, the quality of this year's GRDP growth scenario has made a strong breakthrough, assigning each task, each project and specific implementation progress to each department, industry and locality.

“The target of GRDP growth of 12% in 2025 is a difficult target, but not an impossible task. Through reviewing the projects and works expected to come into operation this year, we see that this is a feasible target that can be achieved if there is high determination,” said Le Viet Hung, Deputy Director of the Provincial Statistics Office.

Analysis of each sector shows that agriculture and forestry can basically meet growth targets if weather and disease factors develop in a favorable direction. Localities can make the most of the land area for spring and summer crops, preventing disease outbreaks.

The industrial sector is still short of the growth target, but Hai Duong can fully expect that the projects that are about to go into production will operate soon and stably. The favorable export market factor will help the industry continue to grow even higher.

The construction sector will be a breakthrough in this year's growth scenario. Departments, sectors and localities need to focus on doing a good job of site clearance, shortening the time for appraisal and investment licensing; promoting high disbursement of public investment capital right from the first months of the year.

The service sector needs to focus on stimulating consumption, strengthening e-commerce management; supporting commercial center projects to come into operation soon; developing tourism associated with cultural festivals.

“Departments, sectors and localities need to make drastic efforts to implement their tasks with the spirit of completing the set targets earlier and better than expected, to make up for some delayed tasks due to other reasons. Only then can we successfully complete the 12% growth target,” Mr. Hung added.

According to Director of Hai Duong Department of Finance Nguyen Trong Tue, the state budget revenue in 2024 with total domestic revenue of VND 26,156 billion, exceeded the estimate by 55%, increased by 36% compared to 2023; all 16/16 revenue items exceeded the estimate. The high growth rate of state budget revenue, many positive changes in production and business activities, the warming real estate market... are the basis for building a scenario for budget revenue in 2025. Commenting on the budget revenue scenario, the Director of the Department of Finance said that policies to support businesses and taxpayers will continue to be implemented in 2025 such as reducing value added tax, reducing environmental protection tax on gasoline, oil, and grease, which will create conditions for taxpayers to have working capital, promoting the development of production and business activities.

The provincial tax department has set a target of reviewing enterprises with investment projects in the province that are paying taxes in other provinces to guide them in declaring and paying to the provincial budget. In addition, many investment projects will no longer enjoy corporate income tax incentives by 2025. Therefore, the actual tax paid to the state budget will be higher than in 2024.

“The tax sector has also identified one of the key tasks to be promoted in 2025 as tax collection for e-commerce business activities or on digital platforms. Along with that, many real estate projects completing site clearance progress in 2025 will contribute to increasing revenue from land use fees. These are the main areas contributing to ensuring the target of increasing state budget revenue in 2025 of Hai Duong,” analyzed Director of the Department of Finance Nguyen Trong Tue.