Netherlands - Romania: Waiting for the "Agent Orange storm"

The surprise came in the group stage, when the Netherlands suffered a shock defeat to Austria and only reached the round of 16 as one of the best third-placed teams. Meanwhile, Romania beat title contender Belgium to top Group E.

Romania have reached the knockout stages of a major tournament (World Cup or Euro) for the first time since losing to Italy in the quarter-finals of Euro 2000. The Eastern European side have won just one match in their previous appearances in the knockout stages of a major tournament, beating Argentina 3-2 in the round of 16 of the 1994 World Cup.

Romania conceded 46 shots from opponents across their three group games – only Georgia (71) have faced more of the last 16 sides at Euro 2024. But Romania’s average expected goals conceded per shot is 0.07 – only bettered by England (0.04) and Belgium (0.06) in the group stage. This means the average quality of shots Romania have faced is the third lowest of any team, reflecting their defensive resilience.

Cody Gakpo is the Netherlands' best hope of breaking down this Romanian defence. The Liverpool forward scored two of the Netherlands' four goals in the group stage and could become the sixth Dutchman to score at least three goals at a Euro. The five Dutch players to have achieved this feat are Marco van Basten (5 in 1988), Dennis Bergkamp (3 in 1992), Patrick Kluivert (5 in 2000), Ruud van Nistelrooy (4 in 2004) and Georginio Wijnaldum (3 at Euro 2020).

Despite not scoring in the group stage, Memphis Depay still made a big contribution to the Netherlands' play with 108 pressures in the final third, second only to Denmark's Rasmus Hojlund (129). In the Netherlands alone, Depay is far ahead of the runner-up, Gakpo (42).

Meanwhile, Romania's most anticipated star is Razvan Marin - a midfielder who has scored two goals so far. The only players to have scored more for Romania at a major tournament are Florin Raducioiu and Gheorghe Hagi - both with three goals at the 1994 World Cup.

This is only the second time the Netherlands have met Romania at a major tournament, following a 2-0 win for the Netherlands in the group stage of Euro 2008.

The Netherlands have also won 10, drawn three and lost just one of their 14 games against Romania in all competitions. The Orange Army have also won their last four games, since losing 0-1 to Romania in a Euro qualifier in October 2007.

The last time they met was in a friendly match in Bucharest in 2017, the Netherlands won 3-0 thanks to goals from Depay, Ryan Babel and Luuk de Jong.

Therefore, supercomputerOptaThe Netherlands are predicted to regain their traditional "orange whirlwind" image, with a 62.8% chance of winning in regular time at the Allianz Stadium, Munich today. This rate for Romania is only 15.3%.

Expected lineup:

Netherlands: Verbruggen, Geertruida, De Vrij, Van Dijk, Ake, Reijnders, Schouten, Veerman, Simons, Depay, Gakpo

Romania: Nita, Ratiu, Dragusin, Burca, Sorescu, M.Marin, R.Marin, Stanciu, Man, Dragus, Mihaila.