Russian Presidential Election 2024 - a referendum on the future

It can be said that the most important political event in Russia in 2024 and perhaps in the next 6 years is this eighth presidential election.

This is the first time a presidential election has taken place not in one but three days, from March 15-17, in a special context when Russia is facing tens of thousands of sanctions and blockades from the West related to the conflict in Ukraine.

The four candidates eligible to run for office this time are Leonid Slutsky of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDPR), Nikolai Kharitonov of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF), Vladislav Davankov of the “New People” Party and finally the incumbent President Vladimir Putin, who is running as an independent.

This is the fifth time Mr. Putin has run for the presidency of the Russian Federation. Not only is the current president expected to win like the previous four times, but it seems that all expectations are also on this veteran politician.

Experts say that implementing measures to strengthen the economy, politics and society in the face of pressure from the West, as well as changes in the international situation, is one of the reasons why President Putin is predicted to win this election.

After more than two years of conflict, the Russian economy remains strong and growing at a decent rate.

The Russian government has maintained the stability of the financial system; encouraged and protected businesses according to supply-side policies, thereby helping the economy achieve an impressive growth rate of 3.6% in 2023, higher than the government's commitments.

Sergei Baburin of the All-Russian People's Union, who withdrew from the race for the Kremlin, said that President Putin had steered the Russian economy through Western sanctions, strengthening and developing its internal strength. The Russian economy was much stronger than it was two years ago and "defusing many time bombs" from the West.

Sharing the same view, Dr. Ivan Timofeev, Director General of the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC), emphasized that Russia has been able to maintain financial stability, thereby helping to stabilize the economy. The withdrawal of a large number of Western companies from Russia has allowed Russian enterprises to find a new foothold, demonstrate their competitiveness, and be able to replace foreign enterprises in a number of industries and promote economic development.

Russian producers now feel more confident, capturing the domestic market, reversing the decline in 2022.

In addition, Russian business and economy have worked with the mindset of the need to cooperate with other partners, diversifying trade relations, thanks to which Russian trade has really shifted to the South and East.

According to Mr. Timofeev, those factors help President Putin receive high support domestically.

Ahead of the election, President Putin made a series of working trips to many localities of the country, meeting and talking frankly with many classes of people.

Notably, two weeks before the election, in his annual State of the Nation Address, he made ambitious commitments for the next six years in the social, economic, regional development and business sectors. This is considered the leader's election platform and the direction for Russia's development in the coming years.

President Putin said he would increase support for low-income and disabled people, large families and families with children, and allocate 1 trillion rubles to modernize the health system.

He stressed that there are still 13.5 million Russians living below the poverty line and about 30% of large families are facing financial difficulties, demanding that this figure be reduced to 12% by 2030.

The Russian leader has introduced a series of social programs, in particular preferential mortgages and tax breaks for families with children.

The minimum wage will increase from the current 19,000 rubles (about $207) to 35,000 rubles (more than $380) by 2030.

President Putin also pointed out the need to promote regional and environmental initiatives, small and medium-sized businesses, strengthen digitalization, increase investment in the Russian economy, develop sports infrastructure, improve the equipment of educational institutions, invest in science, build roads and introduce measures to improve air transport.

President Putin announced the launch of the national project “Live Long and Actively” and set the task of increasing the average life expectancy in Russia to at least 78 years by 2030 and then to over 80 years; implementing a new comprehensive program to protect the rights of mothers, protect the health of children and adolescents, and upgrade schools and kindergartens.

The Russian government aims to create thousands of new high-tech jobs over the next six years through the development of 100 technology parks and a 70% increase in investment in key sectors.

Despite the increasingly tightening sanctions, President Putin pointed out that Russia's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate in 2023 is higher than the global average and higher than all member countries of the Group of Seven (G7).

It can be said that the image of President Putin before the election was vividly shown, showing that he is probably the most suitable leader for Russia at the present time. This was also shown through public opinion polls before the election.

In the final poll before the election, the All-Russian Public Opinion Research Center (VTsIOM) said that Mr. Putin is likely to receive 82% of the votes, with the second place being taken by two candidates, Kharitonov and Davankov, each receiving 6% of the votes, while candidate Slutsky came in fourth with 5% of the votes.

Putin has won the Russian presidential elections four times. In 2000, he was elected with 52.94% of the vote; in 2004, he won with 71.31% of the vote; in 2012, his approval rating was 63.60%; and in 2018, he achieved a record 76.69% of the vote.

With a presidential term lasting six years, this year's election is considered a referendum on Russia's future, and as President Putin affirmed in his message calling on voters to vote, the election "is a step towards the future," where the Russian people show their determination to "move forward together."