VPI forecasts gasoline prices to decrease slightly in the operating period on August 22

The Vietnam Petroleum Institute (VPI)'s Machine Learning-based gasoline price forecasting model shows that in the upcoming August 22 management period, gasoline prices will decrease slightly by 0.4-1.5% if the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Industry and Trade do not set aside or use the Petroleum Price Stabilization Fund.

According to Mr. Doan Tien Quyet, data analysis expert of VPI, the gasoline price forecasting model applying the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model and supervised learning algorithm in Machine Learning of VPI predicts that retail gasoline prices in the operating period of August 22 may decrease by 1.2-1.5%.

Specifically, the price of E5 RON 92 gasoline may decrease by VND254 to VND20,626/liter, while RON 95-III gasoline may decrease by VND333 to VND21,517/liter.

VPI's model predicts that retail oil prices will also trend downward this time, with fuel oil prices forecast to decrease by about 1.1% to VND16,061/kg, followed by diesel oil forecast to decrease by 0.8% to VND19,083/liter, and kerosene to decrease by 0.4% to VND19,501/liter.

VPI predicts that the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Industry and Trade will continue not to set aside or use the Petroleum Price Stabilization Fund this period.

On the world market, at the end of the trading session on August 19 (US time), the price of Brent crude oil for delivery decreased by 2.02 USD, equivalent to 2.5%, to 77.66 USD/barrel; the price of US light sweet crude oil (WTI) also lost 2.28 USD, equivalent to 3%, to 74.37 USD/barrel.

The oil market is under downward pressure on expectations that ceasefire talks are about to reach a conclusion, said Bob Yawger, head of energy futures at Mizuho Bank in New York.

Much of the sell-off in energy markets over the past week has reflected a reduction in the Middle East risk premium, said Jim Ritterbusch of independent energy consultancy Ritterbusch & Associates in Florida.

Meanwhile, China's economic problems also put downward pressure on oil prices, amid data last week showing new home prices in the country fell at their fastest pace in nine years.

Chinese refiners sharply cut crude processing capacity last month as fuel demand weakened.