Be careful buying gold at the peak

Decoding the shocking increase in gold prices

Spot gold prices unexpectedly hit $3,004.86 an ounce on March 14, setting an all-time high, before closing at nearly $2,985 an ounce at the end of the session. Over the past week, the world gold price has recorded an impressive increase of $75 an ounce.

Since the beginning of the year, the world gold price has increased by 14%, much faster than most forecasts from major international financial institutions. Previously, some financial institutions such as Goldman Sachs, UOB... predicted that the price of this precious metal could surpass the 3,000 USD/ounce mark by the end of the year. However, after only 2.5 months, this peak has been broken.

Domestically, gold prices also moved in line with world gold prices. On March 16, SJC gold bars were listed by businesses at VND94.3 million/tael for purchase and VND95.8 million/tael for sale. During the week, the highest price of gold bars was recorded at over VND96 million/tael.

The price of 9999 plain gold rings was bought by trading companies at 94.2 million VND/tael and sold at 95.8 million VND/tael. The price of plain gold rings recorded the highest level last week, reaching 96.5 million VND/tael.

In just 1 week, the domestic gold price has increased by more than 3 million VND/tael. Compared to the beginning of 2025, the domestic gold price also recorded an impressive increase, increasing by nearly 11 - 12 million VND/tael, equivalent to a rate of more than 13%.

Explaining the current increase in gold prices, Associate Professor, Dr. Nguyen Huu Huan, Director of the Stock Market Training Program, Ho Chi Minh City University of Economics, said that it is mainly due to the influence of the world gold market. The world gold price is being greatly affected by the uncertain policies of US President Donald Trump. Mr. Trump's management policies, both political and economic, tend to be inconsistent, causing instability for global investors.

The recent US tariff policy has raised concerns about the risk of economic recession and rising inflation. In addition, geopolitical instability has led investors to choose gold as a safe haven asset. This has supported the sharp increase in gold prices recently.

In addition to the need for shelter due to trade war concerns, Mr. Phan Dung Khanh, an investment consultant, said that the current increase in gold prices is also being driven by the downward trend of the USD in recent days. In addition, many organizations tend to buy gold again after a period of silence, which has supported the strong increase in gold prices.

“In the second half of 2024, many central banks and large investment funds limited their purchases and even sold. However, some central banks such as China have now started buying again; at the same time, the world's largest gold investment fund has also continuously bought. These have affected the world gold price, thereby affecting the domestic price increase,” said Mr. Khanh.

Be careful buying gold at the peak

Although the gold price is anchored at a very high level, the domestic gold market is still quite active. According to reporters at some large gold shops in Ho Chi Minh City in the past 3 days, in addition to those selling, many people are still rushing to buy, with a strong fomo (fear of missing out) mentality. At many times, the number of buyers is even larger than those bringing gold to sell.

According to Associate Professor, Dr. Nguyen Huu Huan, the fact that gold prices have continuously conquered historical peaks has made many people afraid of missing out on opportunities in this gold rush. However, at this price range, investors may face a very high risk of correction.

The gold market is being affected by many conflicting factors, both supporting and facing downward pressure. This tug-of-war makes gold prices fluctuate unpredictably, with unusual increases and decreases. In particular, when approaching the peak, gold prices often face the risk of downward adjustment, as many large investors tend to take profits.

In fact, in the last session of this week, after reaching nearly 3,005 USD/ounce, gold prices turned down due to increased profit-taking pressure and closed at 2,985 USD/ounce.

Mr. Phan Dung Khanh, an investment consultant, also said that buying gold at this time is very risky for new investors, because the price of gold has continuously increased and is supported by many factors such as many gold buying organizations, trade wars... but the rate of increase of gold is no longer as strong as before. The price of 3,000 USD/ounce is a very large psychological barrier. The possibility of buying at the peak can happen at any time, so the risk of investing in gold is greater than ever.

This expert also emphasized that this is not the time to buy new gold. Those who bought gold at low prices many years ago, or months ago, can now hold it for a while longer or buy a small percentage more. However, for those who do not have gold at all or have already sold it, buying new gold at this time, in both the short, medium and long term, is very risky.

“Gold prices in the long term are still on an upward trend and are supported by many factors. However, in the past, there were times when gold prices went sideways for a very long time, even stagnant for several years. If falling into that cycle, new gold buyers could face great risks. Therefore, the advice for investors is to diversify their investment portfolio, with a moderate proportion of gold investment,” Mr. Khanh analyzed. For those who are too “crazy” about gold, they can buy 40-50% of their capital. Most investors should not “put all their eggs in one basket” but need to diversify their portfolio to reduce risks.

According to experts, investors should only buy gold in moderate proportions, about 5-10% of the total value of the investment portfolio, the rest should be allocated to other assets such as savings, real estate, stocks, etc. In particular, during this period, investors should note not to borrow money to buy gold and especially not to borrow gold to sell for consumption. This can cause a huge risk of loss for investors.