Iran's urgent diplomatic effort ahead of potential Israeli attack

On October 10, Qatari Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani held important consultations with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in Doha. On social network X, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei said the overall content of the consultations was the conflict situation in the region. The spokesman made clear Iran's position that countries need to increase maximum efforts to prevent the conflict in the Gaza Strip and Lebanon from becoming a catastrophic disaster.

During his visit to Qatar, the head of Iran's foreign ministry is expected to discuss with the host country's officials the situation in Gaza, Lebanon and efforts to reduce tensions in the region.

Last week, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian also visited Qatar, in which he affirmed that Tehran does not want conflict with Israel, but will take strong action if Israel responds to a series of Iranian missiles launched towards Israeli territory.

Citing sources familiar with the matter, CNN said Iran's concerns stem from uncertainty over whether the US can convince Israel not to attack Iran's nuclear and oil facilities, given that Iran-aligned militias in the region such as Hezbollah and Hamas have been significantly weakened by Israeli military operations in recent weeks.

The US has been consulting with Israel on how to respond to Iran's October 1 attack. US officials have made it clear that they do not want Israel to target Iran's nuclear facilities or oil fields. On October 9, US President Joe Biden spoke by phone for the first time in nearly two months with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to discuss response options. However, his Israeli counterpart insisted that Israel's response "must be equal" to what Iran has done.

Meanwhile, an Arab diplomat said that the US's Gulf allies, including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Qatar, have also expressed concerns that a potential Israeli attack on Iranian oil facilities could have negative economic and environmental impacts for the entire region.

The Biden administration fears that retaliatory strikes could escalate into a major regional war that could draw in the United States.

Part of the reason for this concern is that the United States’ influence over Israel has seemed to wane over the past year. As with its actions in Gaza, Israel has increasingly ignored U.S. calls for restraint in Lebanon. Israel also failed to consult the United States before launching a major attack that detonated thousands of Hezbollah members’ pagers and radios, or before assassinating Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut.

In a statement on October 11, Israel revealed that its security cabinet had not yet made a decision on how to respond to Iran. As of last week, Israel had not given any assurances that it would not target Iran's nuclear facilities.

On October 9, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant issued a strong warning to Iran about its response. "Our attack will be powerful, precise and above all, surprising. They will not understand what happened and how it happened," said Minister Gallant.

In general, Gulf states want to stay out of the conflict, an Arab diplomat said. While Iran has publicly warned that any party seen as supporting Israel will be viewed as an aggressor, it is unlikely that Iran’s neighbors will come out in defense of Tehran in the event of an Israeli attack.

Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar have said they will not allow Israel to use their airspace to attack Iran. Jordan will also defend its airspace against any unauthorized intrusion.

For its part, the US believes Iran does not want to get into a full-scale war with Israel. An official revealed that the US is still urging Tehran, through back channels, to adjust its response in case of an Israeli attack.