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Iran prepares at least 10 scenarios to prevent being attacked by Israel

TB (summary) October 8, 2024 11:41

Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) announced that its military has prepared at least 10 scenarios to deal with an Israeli attack.

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A missile launched from Iran was intercepted by Israeli air defense systems over the West Bank city of Nablus on October 1, 2024.

According to Tasnim news agency, a military source said the IRGC has taken countermeasures and intends to respond with force. “Iran’s response will not necessarily be in line with Israel’s actions, but it may be more severe and targeted at different targets to increase the effectiveness of the response,” the source said.

Because Israel is much smaller than Iran and has a smaller, more sensitive infrastructure, an Iranian retaliation could cause unprecedented trouble.

“Any country that supports Israel in the attack will cross Iran’s red line and will suffer losses,” the source stressed.

The warning appeared to be aimed at the United States, which has been coordinating with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government to prepare a retaliatory strike against Iran.

Iran fired a barrage of missiles at Israel on October 1 in retaliation for Israel's recent killing of Hamas and Hezbollah leaders. Israel has vowed to carry out a major attack in retaliation.

In a phone call with his Egyptian counterpart Badr Abdelatty, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi affirmed that the Islamic Republic is not afraid of war and will respond appropriately to any action by Israel. However, he also stressed that Iran does not want a war to spread in the region.

On October 6, Israeli TV channel Kan11 confirmed that the US had offered the country a package of benefits in exchange for not attacking Iran's nuclear or oil facilities. However, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said that anything was possible.

Last week, Iran sent a message to the US through Qatar that Iran had ended its period of unilateral restraint.

Ali Maksoud, a Syrian political and military expert, said Iran’s recent missile attack on Israel signals Tehran has moved from a phase of “strategic patience” to direct retaliation against Israel’s repeated attacks on southern Lebanon and Iranian assets.

Mohammad Nader Al-Omari, a Syrian international relations expert based in Damascus, pointed out that the US’ strategic interest in maintaining influence in the Middle East plays an important role in Israel’s policy towards Iran and its allies. The assassination of senior Iranian figures, as well as a series of targeted assassinations of Hezbollah leaders in Lebanon, have exacerbated the conflict.

On Iran's side, any significant Israeli action is almost certain to provoke a strong response. Iran's latest response to Israel's provocation is a message that Tehran will not tolerate Israel's current approach.

An Israeli attack on Iranian assets, especially if it targets high-value infrastructure or military leaders, could push Iran into a retaliatory campaign targeting Israeli interests and allies.

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Iran prepares at least 10 scenarios to prevent being attacked by Israel