A look back at the key events leading up to Iran's missile attack on Israel

According to The Guardian (UK), immediately after the attack from its top rival, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned that Tehran had "made a big mistake".

Iran said it fired about 180 ballistic missiles at Israel in response to the assassination of senior leaders of the Palestinian Hamas movement, Lebanon's Hezbollah and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

A day earlier, Israel launched a ground offensive into southern Lebanon, although Hezbollah denied Israeli soldiers had crossed the border.

So what factors sparked Israel’s war in Gaza nearly a year ago into the current conflict? Al Jazeera looks at the key events that led to the latest escalation in the conflict between Israel and its regional neighbours.

Iranian media released a video recording the missile launch into Israel (Source: Reuters):

October 8, 2023 – Hezbollah and Israel begin fighting

Just a day after Hamas launched an attack on southern Israel – a conflict that left 1,139 people dead and more than 200 hostages – Israel and Lebanon’s Hezbollah began exchanging fire across the border. Tel Aviv has since launched a series of retaliatory strikes on the Gaza Strip, a war that has lasted nearly a year.

So far, the conflict in the Gaza Strip has left at least 41,000 Palestinians dead - mostly women and children.

On October 8, 2023, Hezbollah said the movement had launched guided missiles and shelled three military bases in Shebaa Farms, a border area, in a show of solidarity with the Palestinian people.

Shebaa Farms, an area claimed by Lebanon, was occupied by Israel during the 1967 Six-Day War.

The Israeli military said it fired artillery in response to an area of ​​Lebanon where cross-border fire had been reported.

Cross-border fire has continued almost daily since then. Hezbollah - a movement founded in 1982 to oppose Israel's invasion and occupation of southern Lebanon - has said it will only stop attacking Israel after Tel Aviv ends its war in Gaza.

According to the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED), of the 7,845 attacks between the two forces between October 7, 2023 and September 6, 82% were carried out by Israeli forces. At least 646 Lebanese were killed during the period. Hezbollah and other armed groups were responsible for 1,768 attacks that killed at least 32 Israelis.

April 1 – Israel attacks Iranian consulate in Damascus, Syria

The Iranian consulate in Damascus was destroyed in an Israeli missile attack that killed 13 people, including senior IRGC commander Major General Mohammad Reza Zahedi and his deputy.

Israel has long targeted Iranian military facilities in Syria, but this attack marked the first time Tel Aviv has targeted a diplomatic complex. Iran has vowed to retaliate.

April 13 – Iran launches 300 missiles, drones towards Israel

Nearly two weeks after a devastating attack on the Iranian consulate in Syria, Iran has launched a barrage of missiles and drones at Israel, marking the first time Iran has fired missiles directly at Israeli territory.

However, according to the Israeli military, most of the Iranian projectiles were intercepted outside the country's borders with the help of the US, UK and France. Jordan also helped shoot down some missiles that flew over its airspace.

Notably, a 7-year-old Israeli girl was seriously injured by missile fragments from the attack, while several others suffered minor injuries. According to US officials, the Iranian air strike lasted 5 hours.

July 31 – Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh assassinated

Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated in the Iranian capital Tehran early on July 31 when an airstrike hit the building where he was staying. Hamas and Iran blamed Israel for the assassination, which came just hours after Israel targeted a senior Hezbollah leader in Beirut.

Hamas' armed wing, the Qassam Brigades, said the assassination of leader Haniyeh had taken the war with Israel to a “new level” and warned of “huge consequences for the entire region”.

September 23-27, Israel airstrikes Lebanon

On September 23, the Israeli military carried out more than 650 airstrikes against some 1,600 Hezbollah targets across Lebanon. The airstrikes took place across the country – from Bint Jbeil and Aitaroun in the south, to Baalbek in the Bekaa Valley in the north.

In just four days, from September 23 to 27, Israeli airstrikes killed more than 700 Lebanese, including 50 children and 94 women. On September 27, Israel announced the death of Hassan Nasrallah, the veteran leader of the Hamas movement for 32 years.

According to Israeli media, the Israeli military has claimed responsibility for the assassination, which took place during a large-scale raid on a residential area on the outskirts of Beirut using 85 bunker-busting bombs. The Geneva Convention prohibits the use of such bombs in residential and crowded areas.

Lebanon's Public Health Ministry said at least 1,835 people were injured in Israeli raids.

On September 24, Hezbollah retaliated with a drone strike targeting Israel's Atlit naval base south of Haifa.

According to the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), the Israeli attacks continue. At least one million Lebanese have been displaced, with 90% of them displaced in the week before October 1, with many forced to live in the open – on the streets, on beaches, in parks or in their cars.

How did the conflict spread?

Mr. Trita Parsi, deputy executive director of the Quincy Institute in Washington, commented that if there had been a real effort to achieve a ceasefire in Gaza from the beginning, this situation would not have happened.

“The key factor in the current escalation is the US stance in seeking to deter Iran, its proxies and its partners in the region from retaliating against Israel. But from the beginning, they have failed to act to deter Israel from escalating,” he said.

According to this analyst, if US President Joe Biden had pressured Israel not to escalate, his efforts to prevent other countries from escalating would have been more successful. Instead, Mr. Biden decided to allow Israel to escalate and protect it.