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Detailed analysis, performance assessment and result prediction for the Spain - Germany quarter-final match of EURO 2024 taking place at 11pm on July 5.
The EURO 2024 quarter-finals will kick off with the match between Spain and Germany at 11pm on July 5. This is considered an "early final" between the two championship candidates who have performed best since the beginning of the tournament.
Opta's supercomputer predicts Spain's chance of winning (in 2 halves) at 38%, slightly higher than their opponents (34.2%). The actual head-to-head record between the two teams in the past also favors Spain.
The last time Germany won against Spain in an official tournament was 36 years ago (EURO 1988). In the last 7 confrontations between the two teams, only 1 match had a score of over 2 goals.
Spain (9 goals) and Germany (10 goals) were the two teams with the most goals in the tournament, ranking first and second respectively in terms of expected goals. No team had more shots on target than these two teams.
Spain have conceded just one goal since the start of the tournament. That was an own goal by Robin Le Normand against Georgia. On average, Spain concedes 8.5 shots per game from their opponents.
Germany conceded two goals at EURO 2024, including an own goal by Antonio Rudiger (against Scotland). Germany allowed the fewest chances to opponents in the tournament (an average of only 6.8 shots per game).
Nacho Fernandez has recovered from injury. However, he will have difficulty breaking into the starting lineup where the central defender pair Aymeric Laporte and Le Normand are playing consistently.
Spain will continue to use a 4-3-3 formation with Pedri, Rodri and Fabian Ruiz in midfield. The most in-form players are Marc Cucurella, Nico Williams and Lamine Yamal, all of whom are fit.
The German team welcomes Jonathan Tah back from suspension. The Bayer Leverkusen player will push Nico Schlotterbeck to the bench.
Florian Wirtz is likely to be brought back into the starting lineup after Leroy Sane failed to show much in two consecutive matches. Meanwhile, David Raum performed well as a replacement for Maximilian Mittelstadt and could keep his starting position.
Predicted Spain lineup: Simon; Carvajal, Le Normand, Laporte, Cucurella; Pedri, Rodri, Ruiz; Yamal, Morata, Williams
Predicted Germany lineup: Neuer; Kimmich, Tah, Rudiger, Raum; Kroos, Andrich; Musiala, Gundogan, Wirtz; Havertz
Spain 1-1 Germany (extra time: 2-1)
University (according to VTC News)