The US government is at risk of defaulting for the first time, leading to many other uncertainties.

The US government will face the risk of defaulting on part of its $36.6 trillion debt between mid-July and early October 2025 if Congress does not act to raise Washington's debt ceiling, the US Bipartisan Policy Center (BPC) warned on March 24.

US lawmakers have repeatedly pushed negotiations on raising the government's debt ceiling to the last minute.

The trend has shaken financial markets and prompted major credit rating agencies to downgrade the federal government's ability to repay its debt.

“Lawmakers cannot afford to delay action on the debt limit… Resolving the debt ceiling by ‘Day X’ needs to be at the top of the priority list,” said Shai Akabas, vice president for economic policy at BPC.

Previously, on March 19, a spokesperson for the US Congressional Budget Office announced that the agency would release its own forecast for “Day X” - the time when the US Treasury Department would no longer be able to shoulder all its obligations.

The United States has never defaulted on its debt, and global financial markets would be unsettled at the slightest hint that such a scenario might occur.

The standoff over the 2023 debt ceiling has pushed the United States to the brink of default and damaged the credit rating of the world's largest economy.

“Day X” is difficult to pinpoint, because the timing depends on a number of factors, including tax cash flow, as Americans’ annual tax filing deadline falls in mid-April.

This year, a number of other factors will affect the tax filing deadline, including signs that the U.S. economy is weakening and President Donald Trump's tariffs on foreign goods.

In addition, the decision to extend tax payments to support victims of recent natural disasters is also affecting the cash flow into the US government budget.