Who will win the 2025 Oscar?

The 97th Academy Awards is shaping up to be one of the most controversial awards ceremonies in history. As the curtain draws closer, the most prestigious film award on the planet continues to be dogged by scandals, making the competition increasingly unpredictable.

Emilia Pérez, the film with the most nominations (13 categories), suddenly slipped down the track when surrounded by a series of scandals. Not stopping there, Anora, The Brutalist and Conclave - three strong candidates in the Best Picture category - were also criticized for different reasons, from which there were relative slowdowns.

In addition, the impact of the writers and actors' strike also significantly reduced the quality of this year's works. With no film clearly superior to the rest, the results of the 97th Oscars depended heavily on previous award campaigns.

Art films reign supreme

As of now, Anora, The Brutalist and Conclave are the strongest candidates for the title of Best Picture of the year. All three are representatives of the art drama genre, all emphasize the psychology of the characters with internal conflicts, and all have cool tones combined with highly artistic images.

Perhaps differently, if Anora has the rough realism of American independent cinema, The Brutalist has a modern noir (neo-noir) nuance, exploiting the decline of artistic ideals before the power of power, while Conclave retains the mystery and drama of a religious political work.

However, towards the end of the stage, Anora created a large gap with its two rivals. With strong support from Neon - the independent film studio that brought cinematic shocks such as Parasite (2019) or Titane (2021), Sean Baker's brainchild had a surprising breakthrough.

From being suspected, the work now owns 75 big and small awards, including very important names such as PGA (producer's association), DGA (director's association), WGA (screenwriters association) and Critics Choice... Previously, only Brokeback Mountain (2005) won the above combination of awards but failed in the Best Film category. Notably, with the victory at PGA, Anora has a big advantage in the race. With the same number of members as the Academy, the PGA is the most prestigious Oscar prediction award (12 of the last 15 works to win the PGA have won the Oscar).

However, Conclave has emerged as a formidable contender. Edward Berger's political drama has been a surprise winner at BAFTA and SAG - two of the most important Oscar precursors. Not to mention, Conclave is also expected to win Film Editing and Screenplay - two categories that are closely linked to Best Picture. If that happens, the possibility of Conclave pulling off an upset is still possible.

Finally, The Brutalist is the work that leaves the most regrets. Even before its wide release, Brady Corbet's brainchild has attracted great attention. The film is considered an architectural chronicle or a work of art, expressing the artist's struggle with the events of the times.

All of that material made The Brutalist expected to sweep the awards at the 2025 Oscars. However, near the end of the race, the work had a long slide when it continuously failed at important awards. Film sites revealed that the film was not loved by the Academy as expected because it was too long and heavy.

The two-horse race between Sean Baker and Brady Corbet

With Conclave's Edward Berger absent, the race for Director of the Year comes down to Sean Baker and Brady Corbet. Both have left strong personal imprints on their work, and the awards' history suggests it's an unpredictable contest.

Obviously, Anora's story and message are not too groundbreaking, simply a girl from a lowly background, disillusioned when she believed that she would change her life by marrying a rich man. However, it is Sean Baker's skillful directing ability that elevates Anora, turning it from a film with a familiar motif into a work of deep realism, making viewers burst into tears when reflecting on themselves.

On the other hand, observers commented that Brady Corbet had created an unbelievable work. With just10 million USDbudget, the director has created a drama/historical film of monumental proportions. Not to mention, in recent years, the Academy has also favored works with large scale and historical stories. The Revenant (2015), The Power of the Dog (2021), or most recently Oppenheimer (2023) are typical examples.

So far, Baker has a slight advantage over his opponent. The American director has won the important DGA award (Directors Guild of America award). In the nearly 100-year history of the Oscars, there have only been 8 times when the DGA and Best Director have had different results.

Still, Brady Corbet has the potential to surprise, with two impressive wins at BAFTA and Golden Globe. If the Academy wants to honor a director with a groundbreaking artistic style, Corbet would be a strong candidate.

Timothée Chalamet finds it difficult to turn the tables

At the SAG Awards, Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown) surprised everyone by winning Best Actor. The award made him the youngest actor ever to win the award, ending the dominating streak of Adrien Brody (The Brutalist). Brody had been considered the frontrunner, winning the Critics Choice, BAFTA, and Golden Globe awards for his portrayal of a Hungarian architect fleeing post-war Europe.

If he wins at the 2025 Oscars, Timothée Chalamet will have his first golden statuette after two nominations, and will become the youngest actor to win in this category. The previous record belonged to Adrien Brody, who won an Oscar in 2003 at the age of just 29.

While many believe Timothée Chalamet could pull off a surprise, Oscar voting actually closed before the SAG results were announced, meaning the win may not have much of an impact on the race. Plus, while Chalamet's portrayal of Bob Dylan was highly praised, A Complete Unknown doesn't resonate as strongly as Adrien Brody's The Brutalist.

Adrien Brody has been on a solid footing all season, with critical acclaim and an overwhelming number of Oscar nominations. Barring a major last-minute upset, he remains the clear favorite to win the golden statuette. While Timothée Chalamet's SAG win is hugely symbolic, it's unlikely to change the dynamic that has always favored the leading man. The Brutalist.

Demi Moore was called?

The chance of winning the Best Actress statuette is leaning towards Demi Moore (The Substance), but Mikey Madison (Anora) is still a formidable opponent, completely capable of creating a surprise. Their race is even more interesting when one side is a star of the previous generation, making a strong comeback after a long period of hiatus, while the other is a promising face of world cinema.

If she wins, Demi Moore will lift the golden statue for the first time in more than 40 years of dedication to cinema. This will certainly be an important milestone in the actress's career, putting her in the ranks of stars who were once underrated but eventually reached the pinnacle of glory. Demi Moore has also won most of the important pre-Oscar awards, from SAG to Critics Choice, making her the strongest candidate.

Meanwhile, Mikey Madison also made a big mark by winning a BAFTA – an award that has a strong influence on the Oscars. Anora, the film in which she stars, is also a leading candidate for Best Picture. This could help strengthen the actress’s position in competition with her senior.

Experts say Moore has the advantage thanks to his impressive comeback story and the support of film organizations, while Madison has a more Oscar-worthy role and comes from a work that has weight in the Best Picture race.