Vietnam faces challenges from falling birth rate

Impact of declining fertility

In recent years, the birth rate in Vietnam has shown a clear downward trend. Data from the General Statistics Office shows that the national birth rate in 2023 is about 1.96 children/woman, down from 3.6 children/woman in 1989 and is the lowest level ever. Vietnam's total fertility rate is the lowest in Southeast Asia (2 children/woman). The declining birth rate has put Vietnam in the group of countries with low birth rates, posing many challenges for the country's sustainable development.

Experts assess that with the declining birth rate, the young labor force will increasingly be in short supply, negatively affecting economic growth. When the birth rate decreases, the number of people of working age will also decrease, leading to a labor shortage in the future. This directly affects the country's ability to develop the economy and maintain growth rates.

Vietnam is in the golden population period, but without appropriate measures, this period will quickly end, the country will have to face the situation of population aging. This means a decline in labor resources, low labor productivity, great pressure on social security costs, especially health care and retirement costs.

The decline in birth rates has led to a change in the population structure with an increasing proportion of the elderly. It is forecasted that by 2050, the proportion of people aged 65 and over will account for about 20% of the population, while the proportion of the working-age population (15-64 years old) will decrease. This change places great pressure on the health care and social protection systems, requiring timely and effective solutions to cope.

According to experts, changes in awareness and lifestyle, including the increase in the proportion of women participating in the workforce and the shift from large families to small families, also play an important role in the decline in the birth rate. According to current statistics, 70% of women participate in the workforce. This figure is quite high compared to many countries in the region. Many young families today choose to have fewer children to focus on their careers and improve their quality of life.

The increasing cost of raising and educating children is also one of the reasons why many young couples choose to have fewer children or no children. Especially in big cities, the rising cost of living, education and health care reduces the economic capacity of families.

Although she is not under economic pressure because her husband works for a large corporation, Ms. Tran Mai Huong (30 years old, Binh Thanh District) still decided to have only one child. Ms. Huong said that both husband and wife are busy with work and career advancement opportunities, and do not have much time to take care of their children. "If I give birth to a child and leave it to the maid, I think I should not have another child. Having a child means having the responsibility to ensure that the child has a full life, both materially and spiritually," Ms. Huong stated her opinion.

Associate Professor, Dr. Tran Thi Minh Thi, Editor-in-Chief of the Journal of Family and Gender Studies, assessed that the decline in fertility affects the country's sustainable development. When the fertility rate decreases, the number of children decreases, which affects future human resources and the ability to maintain economic and social activities. In addition, the decline in fertility rate can also lead to gender imbalance and other social problems.

Experts say that although there are many policies to support having children, they are still not enough to encourage young couples. These policies need to be improved to ensure practical and effective support, from providing medical care to financial and educational support.

Ensuring fertility and workforce for the future

The government has put forward many macro policies and measures to improve the quality of health and education services for children to ensure that all children enjoy the best living and learning environment. This not only helps improve the quality of life, but also encourages families to have children.

In 2020, the Prime Minister signed Decision No. 588/QD-TTg approving the "Program to adjust fertility rates to suit regions and groups by 2030". The Decision set specific targets: increase the total fertility rate by 10% in provinces and cities with low fertility rates; reduce the total fertility rate by 10% in provinces and cities with high fertility rates; maintain results in provinces and cities that have reached replacement fertility rates. Thus, for localities with high fertility rates, it is necessary to continue to apply and improve the effectiveness of implementing support policies, encouraging communities to not have a third child or more; support people to implement family planning services.

According to experts, one of the important solutions is to increase communication and education about the benefits of having and raising children. Communication programs need to focus on changing people's awareness of family and the role of children in life.

Master Mai Trung Son (Department of Population, Ministry of Health) said that the draft Law on Population being developed proposes 4 measures to encourage women to have 2 children in provinces and cities with low birth rates. These include one-time cash support when women give birth to a second child; exemption or reduction of tuition fees, support for learning costs for children of preschool and primary school age...; agencies, organizations, and businesses participating in providing counseling and support services for marriage and family to enjoy policies to encourage socialization in the health sector. In addition, it is necessary to build a suitable environment and community to create conditions for couples to have 2 children, take good care of and raise their children, and share responsibilities among family members; regulate the social responsibility of employers towards employees raising young children and other measures.

According to experts, improving working conditions and protecting the rights of women of childbearing age is also very important. Policies should focus on supporting women to be able to work and take care of their families at the same time, such as providing childcare services, flexible working hours and reasonable maternity leave.

Doctor Le Truong Giang, Chairman of the Ho Chi Minh City Public Health Association, said: It is necessary to stop birth control policies and completely switch to birth encouragement policies by changing the slogan from "Each couple should have 2 children" to "Each couple decides the number of children they have".

Encouraging men to participate more in housework and childcare is also an important solution. This will not only help reduce the burden on women but also create a more equal and happier family environment.

Experts assess that the challenge of declining fertility in Vietnam not only affects the population structure, but also has far-reaching implications for the economy, society and social security policies. Identifying and proposing appropriate measures is necessary to ensure the country's sustainable development in the future. The Government and relevant agencies need to coordinate closely to implement effective solutions, while raising public awareness of the importance of maintaining a reasonable fertility rate. Only then can Vietnam overcome this challenge and continue to develop strongly in the coming years.