Electric cars will soon be as cheap as motorbikes and phones

RethinkX is an independent policy institute that studies issues of technology and innovation, as well as the impact on socio-economic life, including electric vehicles. Tony Seba, an energy expert at Stanford University (USA), co-founder of RethinkX, made a very bold prediction.

That is, by 2030, there will be an electric car with a range of 320km worth 5,000 USD (121.5 million VND). This price is only equivalent to a Vespa GTS 150.

Even more amazingly, by 2046, this electric car will cost only $300 (7.3 million VND). This price is only the same as a mid-range smartphone today.

Additionally, by 2030, battery prices will drop by about 80%.

Tony Seba used Wright's "economies of scale" to make his prediction. Economies of scale reflect the cost of a unit of a product or service produced decreasing as the quantity produced increases.

In the case of electric vehicles, Seba argues that as production doubles, manufacturing costs fall at the same rate.

Looking further, as energy costs fall, agriculture and food will also benefit, society will become richer, even reaching the state of "super-abundance" that people desire.

Tony Seba is famous for his bold predictions, so much so that when he first made them, many people laughed at him for being crazy. But he actually got his predictions right.

In 2010, Tony Seba made a very bold prediction about electric cars. At that time, the electric car industry was almost entirely dominated by Tesla. Even Tesla was skeptical, as only one Roadster was launched in 4 years (2008 - 2012). But the story changed when Tesla launched the Model S in 2012, the Model X in 2015 and the Model 3 in 2017.

That year, Tony Seba predicted that electric vehicles would be the next big thing in mobility. They would be 5 to 10 times more energy efficient than gasoline vehicles. Maintenance costs would be 5 to 10 times cheaper. Refueling costs would be 5 to 10 times cheaper. Electric vehicles were still expensive because batteries were expensive. But even as the price of electric vehicles was high, the shift from gasoline engines to electric batteries had already begun.

Seba predicts that the mass switch to electric vehicles will begin in the 2020s. Even after 2030, there will be no new gasoline cars.

In principle, this prediction is correct. The 2030 mark remains to be seen. But many countries are planning to ban the sale of new gasoline-powered vehicles between 2030 and 2035, suggesting that Seba’s prediction will be correct in at least some markets.