Submit a comment
The prospects for peace in the Russia-Ukraine conflict are positive, but also contain many risks.
According to Timothy Ash, senior emerging market strategist at Bluebay Asset Management Company based in London (UK), in the Kyiv Post (Ukraine) on July 28, a series of recent political and diplomatic events have raised hopes for the possibility of achieving peace in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Signals from many sides show that there may be an opportunity to end the fighting, but there are also many risks and challenges involved.
One notable development is that Ukraine has made significant concessions in negotiations with its creditors in recent days, opening up the prospect of debt restructuring in September. This suggests that Ukraine may be preparing for the possibility of an end to the conflict in the near future. It also means that Ukraine is developing plans to access financial markets and attract investment, which is essential for the country's post-conflict reconstruction. The rise in Eurobond prices reflects optimism about the possibility of a peace deal.
Meanwhile, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s tour of Russia, China, Ukraine and the United States (where he met former US President Donald Trump at Mar-a-Lago) has attracted attention. The fact that Prime Minister Orban is making this trip could indicate preparations for major moves in international politics and diplomacy. Although his trip has been met with criticism, it shows that there are quiet efforts being made to find a peaceful solution.
Boris Johnson, the former British Prime Minister, also announced his own peace plan after his trip to Mar-a-Lago. His shift from a staunch opposition to territorial concessions to a peaceful solution suggests that there may be new moves in the approach to dialogue and negotiation.
In addition, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba also made his first visit to China since the conflict broke out, which marked a significant step forward in relations between the two countries. The joint communique between Ukraine and China showed consensus on many issues and the possibility of Ukraine being integrated into China's "One Belt, One Road" initiative. This also marked a new step in Ukraine's foreign policy.
At the same time, recent polls show a shift in Ukrainian public opinion on the conflict, which may reflect Ukraine’s willingness to negotiate a peace deal amid changing political and military conditions.
It is clear that there are many dynamics and shifts in approaches to conflict today. Here are some scenarios and factors to consider:
First, if a peace deal is to be signed, strong security guarantees are needed to prevent a resurgence of conflict. The commitments need to be similar to those provided to Israel, including financial support, weapons and protection.
Another important factor is the US presidential election in November. There are concerns that if former US President Donald Trump wins, Western support for Ukraine could wane. So reaching a peace deal before the election could be a strategy to ensure continued Western support.
Next, China could play a key role in pushing for a peace deal. If Beijing sees that a peace deal could help reduce the risk of a trade war with the US under Trump 2.0, it could increase pressure to reach a deal.
In conclusion, Mr. Ash concluded, the prospects for peace in the Russia-Ukraine conflict are positive, but also fraught with risks. Recent developments indicate a shift in approaches and motivations to reach a peace agreement. However, to ensure a lasting peace agreement, the parties involved need to carefully consider security commitments, political implications, and the role of global powers.
