The poll found that Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican candidate Donald Trump both received 49% support from registered voters.
NBC News' final 2024 presidential poll, conducted from Oct. 30 to Nov. 2, found the race between Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump extremely close, with each receiving 49% support from registered voters and only 2% of voters saying they were still unsure about their choice.
In it, Ms. Harris received support from the growing enthusiasm of Democratic voters, leading Mr. Trump by 20 points on the issue of abortion and positive voter assessments of her ability to protect the middle class.
But Mr Trump benefits from the dissatisfaction of two-thirds of voters with the direction of the country, and high ratings of his presidency, especially compared to the performance of incumbent US President Joe Biden. The Republican candidate also shows a clear advantage on economic issues and the cost of living.
According to NBC News, the race for the White House between Ms. Harris and Mr. Trump has become a balanced race, with big differences in approach and clear gender support levels.
This year’s race for the White House also reflects America’s extreme polarization, with a gender gap of more than 30 points between men and women’s voting preferences. Regardless of who wins, 60% of voters believe the country will remain divided.
The stability in the poll is also notable, with results showing little change since last month, despite the final weeks of a heated campaign and billions of dollars spent on advertising.
“This data is very stable compared to October,” said Jeff Horwitt, a Democratic pollster at Hart Research Associates who conducted the survey with Republican pollster Bill McInturff of Public Opinion Strategies, suggesting “each side is determined and not giving in.”
The race between Ms. Harris and Mr. Trump is still tied at 49%-49%, unchanged from the October survey results when the two candidates were also closely chasing each other with 48% support.
Given that close elections are often decided by which side mobilizes voters better, the NBC News poll also provides a glimpse into possible outcomes based on small changes in turnout.
In an environment that is slightly more favorable to Republicans, meaning a few percentage points higher turnout among men, whites and voters without a college degree, Mr. Trump leads Ms. Harris by 2 points, (50% to 48%).
However, in a more favorable environment for the Democrats, meaning more women, white voters with college degrees and voters of color turn out, the survey results show that Ms. Harris leads Mr. Trump by 3 points, (50% compared to 47%).
All of these results are within the survey's margin of error, which is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
However, because of the US Electoral College system, the presidential race will ultimately be decided by what happens in key battleground states like Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
The latest polls in these states also show tight margins and little certainty.
Polls show the race between Harris and Trump remains tight, with Harris, 60, enjoying strong support from female voters, while Trump, 78, is gaining support from Latino and Hispanic voters, especially men, Reuters reported.
Although neither the Democratic nor the Republican candidates are highly liked, that hasn't stopped voters from turning out to vote, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll.
More than 76 million Americans have already voted early, accounting for nearly half of the 160 million total votes cast in 2020, when U.S. voter turnout hit its highest level in more than a century, according to the University of Florida Election Lab.