Immediate impact on Ukraine from US halting weapons and intelligence

Days after the US halted arms and intelligence supplies to Kiev, Russian forces made a breakthrough in Kursk Oblast, launching a large-scale missile and unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) attack on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure.

The suspension of aid to Ukraine comes after a tense and public row in the White House Oval Office between US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to discuss the peace process.

A former senior Ukrainian officer told The War Zone on March 8 that the US cut off of intelligence sources has seriously affected the Russian Federation's ability to protect strategic weapons, maneuver and evade, as well as provide early warning of threats from aircraft.

“The lack of satellite imagery in Kursk Oblast is contributing to the Russian Federation’s offensive,” the former officer added. At the same time, the lack of anti-aircraft ammunition is making it difficult for Ukraine to counter Russian airstrikes.

“The Russian offensive in Kursk province took us by surprise. We only received information about the attack as it happened,” a field commander told The War Zone.

The commander could not confirm whether there was a direct link between the US withdrawal of intelligence support and the Russian attack, but stressed that “the information came too late.”

On March 7, the Agentstvo news agency and the Ukrainska Pravda newspaper reported that Russian forces had made a breakthrough south of the Ukrainian-controlled town of Sudzha, potentially threatening to cut off some Ukrainian positions in the Russian Federation's Kursk Oblast.

An unnamed military source stationed in Kursk Oblast told Ukrainska Pravda that Russian Federation forces have broken through Ukrainian defenses south of Sudzha and Ukrainian defense forces are trying to stabilize the situation.

According to this source, the Ukrainian army is trying to restrain the Russian Federation's offensive to prevent the risk of being partially or completely encircled.

Meanwhile, The War Zone cited several reports saying that Ukraine may have to withdraw from the area it has partially controlled since August 2024.

Politico reported that Ukrainian forces operating in Kursk are under heavy attack from the Russian Federation and commanders will soon have to make a difficult decision: continue fighting or retreat.

“If the timing is wrong, the Ukrainian army risks being surrounded,” military analysts warn.

“The Ukrainian command has to decide: withdraw from Kursk to preserve its forces or hold out and possibly lose everything,” military analyst Yan Matveyev told Politico.

“We confirm an increase in the number of attacks, including glide bombs, Shahed UAVs and remote-controlled suicide UAVs,” Captain Alexander Kabanov, deputy commander of the electronic warfare battalion of the 15th Artillery Reconnaissance Brigade, told The New York Post.

Another military commander in Kursk said that there was “no exact information” but that about “eight to ten Russian buggies crossed two to three Ukrainian defense positions”.

Ukraine initially launched an offensive into Kursk Oblast in an attempt to draw Russian forces away from the Eastern Front and use Kursk as leverage in peace negotiations. However, according to Captain Kabanov, this plan did not achieve the expected results.

“The Kursk operation may have had a political and psychological impact on (Russian President Vladimir) Putin, but in the long term it did not bring any strategic results,” Captain Kabanov said.

On Telegram, the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) stated that Ukrainian forces are facing serious difficulties in Kursk.

“Logistical problems eventually led to the collapse of the defense line. Day and night, Russian UAVs continuously destroyed Ukrainian equipment and ammunition depots, preventing reinforcements and troop rotations. We are waiting for good news,” the Russian Defense Ministry said.

Russia launches large-scale attack on Ukraine's energy facilities

At the same time as the army advanced in Kursk Oblast, the Russian Federation launched a massive missile and UAV attack on Ukrainian energy facilities. This was the first attack by the Russian Federation since the US stopped sharing intelligence with Ukraine.

“On the night of March 7, 2025, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation launched a combined attack with missiles launched from various platforms against key infrastructure facilities. The main targets were Ukrainian gas facilities,” the Ukrainian Air Force said in a statement.

According to the Ukrainian Air Force, their radar forces detected and tracked 261 enemy air attack vehicles, including 67 missiles of various types and 194 attack UAVs.

“The enemy airstrike was repelled by air defense missile units, electronic warfare (REB) equipment and mobile fire groups of the Air Force and Self-Defense Forces of Ukraine,” the Ukrainian Air Force said.

At least two people were injured after a Russian missile destroyed two residential buildings in Poltava Oblast, according to The Kyiv Independent.

A former senior Ukrainian officer said the Russian Federation took advantage of an intelligence gap to launch a large-scale attack on Ukraine on the night of March 6-7, using many warships, a submarine and 11 Tu-95 strategic bombers.

The Kyiv Independent also commented that the US suspension of intelligence sharing with Ukraine has affected the ability to provide early warning of Russian UAV and missile attacks on military and civilian targets.