What are the chances for the EURO 2024 championship candidates?

The eight matches of the round of 16 of EURO 2024 have been determined. Overall, there have been no major surprises for this year's EURO championship candidates as the "candidate group" including Spain, Portugal, France, Germany, England, Italy and the Netherlands are all in the round of 16. However, the group stage performances have revealed a worrying reality for most of the championship candidates. Except for the Spanish team, who played really convincingly, all the remaining candidates have shown problems at different levels.

The Portuguese team, who were giving the impression that they were both strong and lucky, suddenly collapsed against Georgia. Of course, that was a match where Portugal was not under any pressure because they had already qualified for the next round, but the 0-2 defeat against a team participating in the EURO for the first time like Georgia still made their true strength doubtful.

England were considered the top contenders for the championship but their attacks were soulless and lacked creativity. Germany started the match with a "massacre" against Scotland but ended the group stage with a "running out of steam" match against Switzerland. The German players showed that their form was still unstable.

The French team was considered a candidate for the Top 2 championship but played extremely poorly against the "underdogs" and was too dependent on striker Mbappe. The Italian team had weak finishing and lacked creativity, while the Dutch team had a shaky defense.

Of these 7 candidates, Spain, Germany, France, and Portugal are in the same bracket and must be eliminated from each other. England, Italy, and the Netherlands are in the other bracket and must also be eliminated from each other.

In general, the performance of the 4 teams in the "death" bracket including Spain, Germany, France, Portugal is more convincing than that of England, Italy, and the Netherlands in the remaining bracket, so if any team in the "death" bracket reaches the final, that team really has a great chance of winning EURO 2024.

Although falling into the "death" bracket, with what they have shown in the group stage, Spain deserves to be considered the number 1 championship candidate even though they may meet Germany, France, and Portugal on the way to the final.

Germany's home title ambitions are seriously challenged because if they overcome Denmark, they are expected to meet Spain in the quarter-finals, and if they progress, they could meet France or Portugal in the semi-finals.

Not to mention reaching the final, the German team's journey up to this point is already arduous and potentially risky. It will be very difficult for coach Nagelsmann's students to reach the top of Europe this year. Similarly, the championship ambitions of France and Portugal are also threatened. If they both reach the quarter-finals, they will be forced to eliminate each other in a difficult match for both teams. If either team reaches the semi-finals, it is expected to meet the winner of the match between Germany and Spain. A worrying prospect for both France and Portugal.

In the remaining bracket, England, Italy, and the Netherlands avoided Spain, France, Portugal, and Germany until the final, but they still faced the risk of being eliminated early. The challenge for Italy could come in the round of 16 when they face Switzerland, a team that is not a big name but is considered very difficult to play against.

The Netherlands could face difficulties from the quarter-finals if they overcome Romania in the round of 16 when the risk of a rematch with Austria (who defeated the Netherlands 3-2 in the group stage) is not small.

Because the form of England, Italy, and the Netherlands are all unconvincing while the Austrian team (won Poland, the Netherlands, and lost unluckily to France) played very well in the group stage, this bracket could see a surprise.

Austria or Switzerland, especially Austria, can surprise the "big guys" in this bracket. So, even though they avoid Spain, Portugal, Germany, France before the final, it does not necessarily mean that England, Italy, and the Netherlands have increased their chances of winning the championship. Unless, these teams significantly improve their playing style compared to the group stage.