5 hot spots in the Liverpool-Man City match

Man City's ability to counterattack.For years, Pep Guardiola's side have excelled in possession, forcing opponents to look for opportunities in transition. But the absence of Rodri has left their midfield too vulnerable and counter-attacking has become a major problem.

In the ten Premier League games without Rodri this season, they have conceded 17 shots from counter-attacks. By comparison, with the 2024 Ballon d'Or, Man City have faced just seven shots in their last ten games, and just one in their last eight, from transitions.

In the Premier League this season, only West Ham, Brighton and Crystal Palace have allowed more counter-attacking chances than City (14). Only Aston Villa and Brighton, both conceding four goals, have conceded more from counter-attacks than City (three). In this respect, City have conceded 4.1 expected goals, more than they have conceded in the entire 2023-24 season, which is 3.6. This statistic shows that City are still lucky to have conceded only three goals from counter-attacks.

Tottenham exploited this weakness to win 4-0 at the Etihad last time out, and Liverpool have the class to do the same. In the Premier League this season, Arne Slot's team have taken the most shots from counter-attacks (20) and are second only to Tottenham in terms of goals from such situations (5) - Man City must find a way to stop those counter-attacks at Anfield, or risk being left 11 points behind.

Liverpool's left-back problem.Liverpool have conceded just eight goals in 12 games and suffered just one defeat in the Premier League this season. In all competitions, they have won 17 of their 19 games under Slot and have shown few weaknesses.

Liverpool's biggest problem may be on the left flank. Andy Robertson has been in decline and lost his starting place to Kostas Tsimikas earlier this season. The Scot has conceded two penalties in his last two games, though they haven't cost Liverpool.

Liverpool came from behind to beat Southampton in the 12th round of the Premier League and then beat Real 2-0 partly because Kylian Mbappe missed a penalty in the fifth round of the Champions League. But they cannot afford to make the same mistake against Man City, even if Guardiola's team are not in good form.

Savinho has been a rare bright spot for Man City since the beginning of the season and can make life difficult for Robertson.

Among players to have played more than 500 minutes in the Premier League this season, he leads the way in chances created from open play (2.7 per 90 minutes) and is second in expected assists (3.4 per 90 minutes). The Brazilian was ineffective on the left wing against Tottenham, and could return to the right wing for the big clash at Anfield.

Contrasting performance.Only Ipswich Town (49), Southampton (44), Leicester City (44) and Crystal Palace (38) have created more clear-cut chances than Man City (37) in the Premier League this season.

"Clear opportunity" isOptadefined as a situation where the attacking player is normally expected to score.

Since Rodri’s injury against Arsenal on 22 September, Man City have faced the most clear-cut chances in the Premier League (30 in seven games). Guardiola’s side have faced the fewest shots in that time (61), but have allowed opponents the seventh-highest expected goals (xG) total (12.2) and conceded the sixth-highest number of goals (12).

City's average xG per shot is 0.20 - the highest in the Premier League during that time, ahead of Man Utd's 0.15. Liverpool, on the other hand, have scored the second most goals (24) and have the third highest xG (23.6) in the Premier League this season. Slot's men also have the second highest xG per shot in the league (0.13), behind only Brentford (0.15).

Human resource issues. The last time Ruben Dias played for Man City in the Premier League was also the last time they won: 1-0 against Southampton on October 26. Guardiola hopes Man City can repeat this achievement if the Portuguese centre-back is fit enough to play at Anfield.

Dias was on the bench for the entire 90 minutes of the draw with Feyenoord in the fifth round of the Champions League in midweek, showing that he is about to return and is a huge motivation for the defending champions.

In the 126 Premier League games Dias has played since joining City in September 2020, the team has won 76.2% of their games, earning an average of 2.4 points and conceding 0.8 goals per game. In the 36 games without the Portuguese, City have won 61.1%, earning two points and conceding 1.1 goals per game.

On Liverpool's side, Ibrahima Konate was injured when Endrick fouled him late in the win over Real and is doubtful of playing. The French centre-back is in top form, winning 71.6% of his duels and 82.4% of his aerial duels in the Premier League this season.

One player who is almost certain to start is Mohamed Salah - who has the most goals and assists in the Premier League this season (16), giving Liverpool 17 points - also the highest in the league. The Egyptian star has also had a good record against Man City, scoring seven and assisting four in 14 appearances for Liverpool in the league.

In contrast, Erling Haaland has scored just once in three games against Liverpool, in a 1-1 draw at the Etihad last season. The Norwegian has scored at Anfield, but that was for Salzburg in the Champions League in October 2019.

Home advantage. Liverpool vs Man City is a match that tends to favor the home team. The visitors have won only six of their 54 Premier League meetings, a win rate of 11%, the lowest in matches played more than 30 times in the competition.

Anfield is also a place where Man City have not had a good record. They have lost 13, drawn seven and won just one of their last 21 away games against Liverpool. The exception was Man City's 4-1 win in February 2021, but fans were not allowed in the stadium because of the Covid-19 pandemic. Man City have not won at Anfield with spectators since May 2003.