What impact would Ukraine have if it attacked Russia with long-range missiles?

Experts say the US decision to allow Ukraine to launch long-range strikes against Russia could help Kiev secure its foothold in Russia's Kursk province, giving it leverage in any war negotiations, but it may come too late to change the outcome of the war.

On November 17, Reuters reported that with only two months left before leaving office, US President Joe Biden made a major policy change by deciding to lift some restrictions preventing Kiev from using weapons provided by Washington to attack deeper into Russian territory.

Military analysts say the weapons restrictions have had some impact on the battlefield, where Ukraine has been on the defensive for months. While the changes in US restrictions could help bolster Ukraine’s operations in Kursk, they are unlikely to be a game changer overall.

“This decision was made late, and like others along this line, it may have been too late to significantly change the course of the war,” said Michael Kofman, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington.

“Long-range strikes are like a piece of the puzzle, and have been overly expected in this war,” the expert also said.

There is also no way to know how long Washington’s new policy will last. The loosening has been criticized by Richard Grenell, one of Donald Trump’s closest foreign policy advisers, who will replace Mr Biden on January 20, 2025.

Mr Trump has long criticised the scale of US aid to Ukraine and has vowed to end the war quickly upon taking office, though he has not said how.

The spokesman for the new US President has not yet commented on this issue.

Ukraine has been lobbying for this change for months, citing the inability to strike areas inside Russia, particularly air bases that host fighter jets involved in airstrikes on Ukraine, as a major obstacle.

Russian forces have now advanced at their fastest pace since 2022 in eastern Ukraine, pressing both in the northeast and southeast.

Russia has insisted that Ukraine cannot launch missiles at targets inside Russia without direct support from NATO allies, calling it a major escalation. The Kremlin said on November 18 that any such decision would mean the United States would be directly involved in the conflict.

Forecasting the first Ukrainian air strikes on Russian territory, Reuters said it could take place in the coming days and would likely be carried out with ATACMS missiles, which have a range of up to 306 km.

Meanwhile, a defense official in Central Europe told Reuters that the air strikes would give Kiev more opportunities to defend itself against air attacks, but they would not be a decisive factor in turning the conflict in Ukraine's favor.

The official also revealed that Russia has moved many of its air assets out of reach of Western weapons in Ukraine, although the range of these weapons would extend beyond the area in the Ukrainian-occupied Kursk province.

Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis cautiously said he was “not popping the champagne right now” because he did not know how many missiles Ukraine had and whether they would be enough to impact the battlefield.

The decision to authorize the airstrikes after months of lobbying by Ukraine follows a pattern that has repeated itself throughout the war as the Biden administration has tried to balance its support for Ukraine with concerns about the risk of military escalation.

Washington had previously hesitated for months before agreeing to supply Ukraine with long-range missiles, tanks and aircraft.

Some military analysts have pointed out that the delay on the US side gave Moscow time to recover from initial setbacks and strengthen the defenses of the occupied territory, contributing to the failure of Ukraine's major counteroffensive last year.

The ability to strike Russian territory with missiles could have the most immediate impact in Kursk, where Ukraine wants to hold a prominent stronghold it captured after its first major cross-border offensive in August. Russian land could be a bargaining chip in any negotiations after Trump takes office.

Kiev says Russia has mobilised up to 50,000 troops to try to retake territory in Kursk, and has deployed 11,000 North Korean soldiers, some of whom are believed to have taken part in the fighting.

Moscow neither confirmed nor denied the deployment.

Kofman said the weapon system could be used by Ukraine: “The ATACMS missile could pose a threat to high-value Russian and North Korean targets. This would help Ukrainian forces defend the occupied Kursk area, which is under pressure.”

Rob Lee, a senior fellow at the Philadelphia-based Foreign Policy Research Institute, said it would be difficult for Ukraine to hold onto its positions in Kursk in the long term, and its fate there would depend on resources.

“Ukraine has sent some of its best units there, so they can hold out for a while if they continue to receive enough ammunition and reinforcements,” he predicted.

Kiev-based military expert Serhii Kuzan warned of difficulties for Ukraine, saying that there are a number of targets in Russia with a depth of up to 500 km from Ukraine that Kiev forces are focusing on, but many of them are still out of range of ATACMS.

As for Kiev's other NATO allies, France and Britain have yet to make clear whether they will follow the Americans in allowing Ukraine to use the Storm Shadow/SCALP cruise missile, which has a range of 250 km (155 miles).

“Russia can shoot down Storm Shadow and ATACMS, so the size of the missile barrage that Ukraine can launch is also an important consideration,” Lee said.

The general feeling in Kiev on November 18 was that the Biden administration's decision would help, but it was too late.

“This should have been used as a preventive measure or as a strong response in February or March 2022. Now it doesn't play a big role anymore,” Olga Korovyachuk, a 21-year-old, lamented.