From now until October 2024: Dangerous weather, 2-4 storms make landfall

According to the latest assessment of the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting (General Department of Hydro-Meteorology), from now until October 2024, dangerous weather phenomena such as thunderstorms, tornadoes, lightning, and strong gusts of wind will continue to occur nationwide; the East Sea is likely to see about 6-8 storms and tropical depressions, of which about 2-4 will make landfall in Vietnam.

Many dangerous weather phenomena

Specifically, Deputy Director of the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting Hoang Phuc Lam said that currently ENSO - including two opposite phases, El Nino (the phenomenon of abnormal warming of the surface sea water in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific) and La Nina (the phenomenon of abnormal cooling of the surface sea water in the above-mentioned area) is in a neutral phase and will continue until around the end of August.

It is forecasted that in the period from September to October 2024, the ENSO phenomenon is likely to transition to La Nina state with a probability of 60-70%.

With the above meteorological trend, Mr. Lam said that from now until October 2024, there is a possibility of about 6-8 storms and tropical depressions appearing in the East Sea. Of these, about 2-4 will make landfall.

Notably, storms, tropical depressions and the southwest monsoon are likely to cause strong winds and large waves affecting activities in the East Sea area.

According to the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, the average number of storms and tropical depressions in the East Sea from August to October is 6-7, of which about 3 make landfall in Vietnam.

Also during the forecast period, there is a possibility of dangerous weather phenomena such as thunderstorms, tornadoes, lightning and strong gusts of wind occurring nationwide, which could negatively affect production activities and community life.

The total rainfall forecast in the Northern region in August 2024 is generally approximately the same as the average of many years in the same period; September 2024 is generally 5-15% higher; October 2024 is 10-30% higher, and in the Northwest region, it is 5-10% lower than the average of many years in the same period.

In the Central region, total rainfall in August in the Central Central and South Central regions is generally 10-30% higher than the average of many years, while in the North Central region, it is generally approximately the same as the average of many years; in September-October 2024, total rainfall is generally 10-30% higher than the average of many years in the same period.

Total rainfall in August-October 2024 in the Central Highlands and the South is generally 5-15% higher than the average of many years. Total rainfall in the lower Mekong River region from August-September 2024 is generally 5-15% higher; October is 15-30% higher than the average of many years in the same period.

Regarding heat waves, expert Hoang Phuc Lam said that heat waves in the Northern region are likely to occur until August 2024. In the Northern and Central Central regions, heat waves will occur until September 2024 with decreasing intensity compared to July and August.

The average temperature from August to October 2024 is generally 0.5-1 degree Celsius higher than the average for the same period in many years. The heat wave is forecast to affect daily life and production activities in the North and Central regions.

Cold air starts to move in from September

In the next period from November 2024 to January 2025, expert Hoang Phuc Lam - Deputy Director of the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting said that ENSO is forecast to remain in La Nina state with a probability of about 70-80%.

With the above trend, it is forecasted that from November 2024 to January 2025, there will likely be about 3-4 storms and tropical depressions in the East Sea; of which about 1-2 will make landfall (the average number of storms and tropical depressions in the East Sea during this period is 3-4, of which about 1 will make landfall).

“In addition, heavy rain, whirlwinds, and lightning can negatively affect production activities and public health,” Mr. Lam warned.

According to the forecast of the National Meteorological Agency, the total rainfall in the Northern region from November 2024 to January 2025 will generally be approximately the same as the average of many years in the same period. Particularly in the Northwest region, the total rainfall in November 2024 will generally be 10-20% lower than the average of many years in the same period.

In the Central region, total rainfall in November 2024 in the North Central region is generally 5-15% higher than the average of many years in the same period, in the Central Central and South Central regions is generally 10-20% higher; total rainfall in December 2024 and January 2025 is generally approximately the average of many years in the same period, in the North Central region in December 2024 is generally 10-20% lower.

Total rainfall in the Central Highlands and the South from November 2024 will generally be 5-20% higher than the average of many years in the same period; from December 2024 to January 2025, it will generally be approximately the average of many years in the same period.

Also during this period, cold air is forecast to start operating from September-October 2024 and increase in intensity and frequency in December 2024 and January 2025. Severe cold is likely to appear in late December 2024 and January 2025, affecting people's health and production, especially in the mountainous areas of the North.

“During this period, we need to be on guard against the possibility of frost and ice in the high mountainous areas of the Northern region,” Mr. Lam noted.