What are Iran's response scenarios for Israel?

Whether the Middle East will enter a new conflict or not now depends on Iran's decision.

Scenario of Iran directly attacking Israel

In 2020, Qasem Soleimani, Commander of the Quds Force, was assassinated by the US using a drone in Baghdad (Iraq). Tehran reacted violently, using missiles to attack bases with US troops in Iraq in retaliation. In April 2024, when Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Zahedi, also of the Quds Force, and six others were killed in an airstrike in Syria, many people immediately thought of the scenario that Iran would react similarly to the 2020 incident.

People have reason to think so when Iranian television announced the types of missiles that could target Israel. Funerals and slogans of revenge have also been broadcast from Iran for the past week about the serious consequences that Israel will have to face. At the same time, the reactions of countries like the US and Israel, the tension between Iran and Israel, the West after the Israel-Hamas conflict broke out, making people feel that Iran will "play big" this time.

Senior US officials still believe an Iranian attack is “inevitable,” a view shared by their Israeli counterparts, but as of April 5, the two governments still do not know when or how Iran plans to strike, the station said.

Among the scenarios, according to CNN, is Tehran deciding to directly attack Israeli territory in retaliation. If this happens, Iran will almost certainly spark a wider conflict in the Middle East. This would be the worst-case scenario and the worst-case scenario that the US has been trying to avoid all this time.

Two Iranian officials were quoted by the New York Times (USA) on April 5 as saying that Iran had decided to attack Israel directly to increase deterrence. CBS News reported that the US had gathered intelligence showing that Iran was planning an attack involving a series of Shahed drones and cruise missiles.

So is it possible that Iran would accept such a move? Theoretically, it could, given the hostile climate between Tehran and Tel Aviv. But in many other ways, Iran would lose more than it would gain. Among them are the potential consequences of a larger war in the Middle East that even Tehran has not yet anticipated.

The statements from Iran are worth considering, but must also be put in the context of the need for the country's authorities to demonstrate firmness so that the people in the country can see their actions that harm the country.

Choose a proportional response

If Iran were to use the argument that a diplomatic mission is inviolable or that "another country's sovereign territory" as Reuters put it, it could respond by directly attacking Israel. However, this action would still be considered disproportionate retaliation and have many potential consequences.

Meanwhile, the April 7 statement by Yahya Rahim Safavi, a senior adviser to Iranian leader Ali Khamenei, drew attention and led people to believe that this was Iran's real decision. In it, Yahya Rahim Safavi warned that "all Israeli embassies are no longer safe" after the attack on the Iranian embassy in Syria.

In other words, to be considered proportionate in its retaliation, Tehran could target an Israeli embassy abroad. It is unclear which country Iran would “choose.” In the 2020 assassination of General Soleimani, Tehran targeted neighboring Iraq, which has several military bases hosting US troops.

But this time Iran would not be able to target the Israeli embassy in Iraq, as Tel Aviv has no diplomatic representation in the country. Yemen and Lebanon, home to the Houthi and Hezbollah forces believed to be backed by Iran, are also not on the list of countries with Israeli embassies, according to the country's Foreign Ministry website.

In the Middle East, the only country closest to Iran and with an Israeli embassy is Jordan, where a drone attack in January killed more than 30 US soldiers stationed there. Iran denied any involvement and said it could have been a result of US military operations in the region.

Therefore, it is not impossible that there will be a “hidden” retaliation, when Iran takes advantage of its own backed forces in the region. But Iran will have to carefully consider the reaction of the Israeli diplomatic base or the US base, if it does not want to make more enemies. That may be the reason why there has been no retaliatory move from Iran so far.