Birth rate in 2024 'lowest in history'

Deputy Minister of Health Nguyen Thi Lien Huong announced the above information at the 2024 Population Work Summary Conference on December 27, adding that this is the third consecutive year that the birth rate in Vietnam has continuously decreased below the replacement level.

Specifically, in 2024, the national fertility rate will be 1.91 children per woman, while in 2023, the rate will be 1.96. In the previous two years, the fertility rate was higher but the trend gradually decreased, from 2.11 children per woman in 2021 to 2.01 children per woman in 2022. The planned target of 2.1 children per woman, according to the Ministry of Health, is the replacement fertility rate that needs to be achieved.

"The birth rate in 2024 is currently the lowest in history and is expected to continue to decrease in the following years," said Ms. Lien Huong. Earlier this year - the year of the dragon, according to Eastern culture, people born in this year will have many favorable luck - the birth rate was predicted to increase. This "historically lowest" result reflects a change in the concept of childbirth compared to the tradition of "a good year brings many births". This result also shows that policies to promote birth have not been able to curb the decline in births nationwide.

In fact, over the past two decades, the trend of low and very low fertility has been concentrated in urban areas, where socio-economic conditions are developed and urbanization is high, fluctuating between 1.7 and 1.8 children per woman. In 2024 alone, the fertility rate in urban areas will be even lower, reaching 1.67 children per woman, while in rural areas it will be 2.08 children per woman.

The birth rate still has significant differences between regions and subjects and is high in localities with difficult socio-economic conditions. For example, the Northern midland and mountainous region has an estimated birth rate of 2.34 children/woman; in the Central Highlands, it is estimated at 2.24 children/woman. These are two regions with high birth rates. The remaining 4 socio-economic regions have birth rates equivalent to replacement level or low. Of which, the Southeast has the lowest birth rate in the country (estimated at 1.48 children/woman).

Thus, the fertility pattern by region has remained almost unchanged for many years, the difference being that the birth rate has decreased each year and is decreasing more and more deeply.

Mr. Pham Vu Hoang, Deputy Director of the Population Department, said that according to the forecast of Vietnam's population in the period of 2019-2069, in case the birth rate decreases sharply as in the low scenario, after 2054, the population will start to grow negatively and the decrease will become larger. In the period of 2054-2059, the average population will decrease by 0.04% per year, the decrease at the end of the forecast period (2064-2069) is 0.18%/year, equivalent to Vietnam losing an average of 200,000 people per year.

Conversely, if the replacement fertility rate remains stable throughout the forecast period, the population will still increase slightly by the end of this period. On average, the population will increase by 0.17% per year in the period 2064-2069, equivalent to 200,000 people per year. This scenario, given the current trend of declining fertility, is unlikely to occur.

According to experts, low replacement fertility has very clear consequences, such as Japan is the country with the most aging population in the world. When the population ages, social, health and welfare costs increase significantly, there is a shortage of labor, and economic and social resources decrease.

Vietnam's population strategy until 2030 is to maintain a stable replacement fertility rate, meaning that on average each woman of childbearing age has 2.1 children, with a population of 104 million people. Therefore, the draft Population Law drafted by the Ministry of Health proposes contents to ensure replacement fertility, support and encourage people to have two children. In particular, the criteria for reducing the number of children born to 3 or more is abolished, and women are encouraged to get married before the age of 30 and have two children before the age of 35. Many provinces and cities apply a cash reward policy to encourage births, such as Long An, Bac Lieu, Hau Giang...