Man City has 70% chance of winning the Premier League

Before round 33, Pep Guardiola's team was in third place, one point behind two opponents. At that time, the supercomputer ofOptastill think that Man City has the most chance of winning the championship, with a probability of 41%, compared to Arsenal's 30% and Liverpool's 29%. This is understandable because Man City has won the championship three times in a row, showing their experience and class many times in the sprint stage. Meanwhile, Arsenal has not won the championship since 20 years ago, and Liverpool has shown signs of decline in Jurgen Klopp's final season.

Playing first in the championship group, Man City thrashed Luton Town 5-1 at the Etihad. They climbed to the top of the table, putting pressure on their two main rivals to win, while also improving their goal difference in case the teams were level on points. The perfect scenario for Guardiola's team was for Liverpool and Arsenal to both lose, and that happened exactly as the reigning champions wanted. "We live to compete for the championship, to cope with the pressure," said the Spaniard.

A day later, Liverpool lost 1-0 to Crystal Palace, despite having 70% possession and 21 shots. The Anfield hosts' total shots were 287% goal-confirming. That means a normal team would have scored around three goals from the number of chances Liverpool created. "This defeat is rubbish and I need time to recover," Klopp said. "On another day we could have won 4-1 and not been in this situation."

Crystal Palace are the only team to have beaten Klopp three times at Anfield (2015, 2017 and 2024). Arsenal will therefore be nervous when they meet their nemesis Aston Villa under Unai Emery. Since being sacked by Arsenal in November 2019, Emery has led his team to meet the Gunners five times, winning three, drawing one and losing just one. He helped Villarreal eliminate Arsenal in the semi-finals of the 2021 Europa League, then win the title after defeating Man Utd in the final.

After a goalless first half, Aston Villa outplayed Arsenal in the second half, with strikers Leon Bailey and Ollie Watkins scoring in quick succession, sinking the Emirates Stadium in the final three minutes. Thousands of Emirates fans left before the final whistle, with Emery running down the touchline and jumping for joy every time he scored. Aston Villa became the only team to beat Arsenal in both Premier League games this season.

The results of round 33 help Man City increase their chances of winning the title by 29%, up to 70%. Arsenal's chances drop to 18%, while Liverpool's are down to 12%. That means Man City's chances of defending the title are greater than both rivals combined.

Not only do they have a two-point advantage, the remaining fixtures are also easier for Man City. The average number of points that Man City's six remaining opponents have won is 43.8 - lower than the corresponding figures of Arsenal 44.3 and Liverpool 47.1. This proves that Guardiola's remaining opponents are weaker than the fixtures of Arsenal and Liverpool.

All three teams face Wolverhampton and Tottenham in their remaining games. Excluding those two, City are left with just two teams in the top half of the table, Brighton and West Ham. The reigning champions have won just one of their last three visits to Brighton, while they have won all eight of their last eight games against West Ham at the Etihad.

Arsenal still have to face Chelsea, Tottenham and Man Utd in the top half of the table, while Bournemouth are in 13th place but are in the top form group. The advantage for the Gunners is that they have three more games to play at the Emirates, while Man City and Liverpool have only two home games left.

Liverpool's schedule is the toughest, with West Ham, Tottenham and Aston Villa still in the top half of the table. Tottenham and Aston Villa are competing for a Champions League spot. Liverpool have also won just one of their last six away games at Everton's Goodison Park.

"Championship race: Has the flag gone to Man City?", the Premier League homepage commented after round 33. Guardiola and his team are in control, with an easy schedule, so they are on the threshold of winning the English championship for four consecutive seasons.