Euro 2024 enters knockout stage

Not Austria - Türkiye or France - Belgium, Switzerland - Italy is the most balanced match in the round of 16, according to the super machine's predictionOpta. The probability of Italy reaching the quarter-finals is 54%, compared to 46% for Switzerland, a difference of only 8%, the lowest in eight matches.

The number is surprising, because Switzerland have not beaten Italy in 31 years, with six draws and five losses in the last 11 meetings. The last time the two teams met in a major tournament, Italy won 3-0 in the group stage of Euro 2021. However, the defending champions' starting lineup at that time only had four players from this year's tournament, while Switzerland still had nine returning faces.

Italy are in a period of transition, which has made things difficult for them in the group stage. They conceded after 23 seconds in their opening win over Albania, then were outclassed for most of their next match against Spain. They needed a last-minute goal from substitute Mattia Zaccagni to hold Croatia to a draw and advance to the round of 16.

Luciano Spalletti and his team's mission this time is probably to get revenge on Switzerland in the 2022 World Cup qualifiers. At that time, the two teams were in the same group, drew both matches but Switzerland ranked higher and won a ticket to Qatar. Meanwhile, Italy had to compete for a play-off ticket and lost to North Macedonia.

Regardless of the outcome of the first round of 16 match, there will be many Italian fans who will be excited when they travel to Berlin. Also at the Olympic Stadium 18 years ago, Italy beat France on penalties in the World Cup final, to win the title for the fourth time. However, in the last two World Cups, Italy failed to qualify.

Italy won the Euro in their first appearance, in 1968, with a legendary squad including goalkeeper Dino Zoff, defender Giacinto Facchetti, midfielder Gianni Rivera and striker Sandro Mazzola. They are also the current champions of the tournament. "No team is happy to play against Italy, because we have tradition," striker Stephan El Shaarawy said before the match on the evening of June 29. "Teams will not have an easy time playing against us."

Switzerland have no reason to fear Italy, having eliminated 2018 World Cup champions France in the last 16 of the Euros. Murat Yakin's squad has not changed much, with goalkeeper Yann Sommer having just won Serie A with Inter, defender Manuel Akanji winning the Premier League with Man City, and midfielder Granit Xhaka winning the Bundesliga undefeated with Bayer Leverkusen. "Hopefully people will respect Switzerland more after this match," Xhaka said.

Also a fairly good European team facing a championship candidate, Denmark only has a 31% chance of overcoming Germany to reach the quarterfinals. Coach Kasper Hjulmand and his team have drawn all three of their last matches, in the most boring group in Euro history. "But every time we meet a strong opponent, Denmark gets more strength," said Mr. Hjulmand.

Hjulmand is right, as Denmark have won two and lost two of their four matches against Germany at major tournaments. The most memorable match was the Euro 1992 final, when Denmark beat Germany 2-0 in Gothenburg, Sweden. It was the biggest upset in the tournament's history, alongside Greece's triumph in 2004.

This time, Germany have the home advantage, with their attack having scored eight goals, the most in the tournament. They have a squad of world-class players, such as goalkeeper Manuel Neuer, centre-back Antonio Rudiger, midfielders Toni Kroos, Ilkay Gundogan and striker Jamal Musiala. The team has also transformed under coach Julian Nagelsmann, remaining unbeaten in seven recent matches, including wins over France and the Netherlands in friendlies.

The problem for Germany is that centre-back Jonathan Tah is suspended for one match, which will force Nagelsmann to make his first adjustment. Germany have fielded the same starting 11 players in all three group games. Centre-back Nico Schlotterbeck could replace Tah, with his experience at Signal Iduna Park.

Denmark also have personnel issues, with midfielders Christian Eriksen and Thomas Delaney both missing Friday's training session with stomach bugs. However, they should be fit to play against Germany. Denmark are heavily reliant on Eriksen's creativity, with him leading the tournament with 13 key passes.

The attack is the problem for Denmark, with strikers all over 1.9m tall such as Rasmus Hojlund, Jonas Wind, Yussuf Poulsen and Kasper Dolberg all failing to score despite being given many chances. In addition to Eriksen, another player who scored for the Netherlands, midfielder Morten Hjulmand, is suspended for this match.

According to UEFA, the Euro is increasingly full of surprises, as the teams' levels get closer together. If Switzerland or Denmark go through, it won't be too big of a surprise, as anything can happen in a knockout round.