Prospects for peace are fragile

US President Joe Biden and his French counterpart Emmanuel Macron announced on November 26 that Israel and Lebanon have accepted Washington's proposal for a ceasefire between Israel and the Hezbollah movement.

The 60-day ceasefire took effect from 4:00 a.m. on November 27 local time (9:00 a.m. the same day Hanoi time), opening up expectations of achieving a long-term ceasefire.

The Israeli cabinet accepted the deal on November 26 while Lebanese lawmakers will discuss the deal on the morning of November 27.

Although not directly involved in the negotiations, Hezbollah's leadership said the group would accept a ceasefire if Israel stopped attacking Lebanon and respected the country's sovereignty.

Current conflict situation

The US and France tried to broker a temporary ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah in late September, but were unsuccessful.

Since then, Hezbollah has been severely weakened. A September attack using explosives hidden in pagers and electronic devices believed to have been carried out by Israel killed many Hezbollah members as well as Lebanese civilians.

Israel also carried out a series of strikes that killed senior Hezbollah leaders, including leader Sayed Hassan Nasrallah.

Meanwhile, November 26 marked an escalation in Israel's attacks on Lebanon as multiple intense airstrikes rocked densely populated areas in the capital Beirut and killed 24 people.

So far, the fighting between Israel and Hezbollah has killed more than 3,500 Lebanese and about 75 Israeli civilians. About 60,000 Israelis have been displaced from the Israel-Lebanon border area since October 8, 2023, when Hezbollah began firing rockets into northern Israel in support of Hamas in the Gaza Strip.

Contents of the ceasefire agreement

Under the ceasefire agreement, Israel and Hezbollah are not to attack each other and Israeli troops will gradually withdraw across the Green Line - the internationally recognized border between Israel and Lebanon - over a period of two months. Meanwhile, Hezbollah will withdraw its forces across Lebanon's Litani River.

Thousands of Lebanese troops and UN peacekeepers will be deployed to southern Lebanon as part of a deal to avoid a “vacuum” after Israel and Hezbollah withdraw.

Once Lebanese forces control the area between the Litani River and the Israeli border, according to an agreed map, they will ensure all Hezbollah heavy weapons and infrastructure have been removed.

The United States and France will join a mission set up after the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war to monitor compliance with the ceasefire agreement.

Prospects for a ceasefire

Despite the ceasefire agreement, the prospect of a lasting peace between Israel and Hezbollah remains slim.

In a televised speech on November 26, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned: "If Hezbollah violates the agreement and tries to rearm, we will attack. If they try to rebuild infrastructure along the border, dig tunnels, launch missiles or bring in trucks carrying missiles, we will attack."

Mr Netanyahu also said Israeli drones would monitor Lebanese territory, something Lebanese officials said they did not agree to.

Hezbollah, meanwhile, said it would wait “to see if there is a consistency between what we have declared and what has been agreed by Lebanese officials” before committing to a ceasefire. It also said it would respond to any Israeli attack.

In addition to pushing for a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, President Biden is also working to secure a new ceasefire in Gaza in the final days of his presidency.

Hezbollah has previously said that a ceasefire with Israel would only be possible if Israel accepted a ceasefire in Gaza. Therefore, resuming the stalled Gaza talks would be the logical next step toward achieving a peace prospect between Israel and both Hezbollah and Hamas.