US military is planning to attack Houthi, risking getting involved in Middle East conflict

Impact on US elections

According to Politico, four US officials familiar with the matter revealed that the US government has internally discussed scenarios that could potentially drag the US into another war in the Middle East.

Specifically, the above source said, the US military is drafting a plan to respond to the Houthi forces in Yemen when this force is attacking commercial cargo ships in the Red Sea. The plan includes attacking Houthi targets in Yemen. This is an option that the US military has previously proposed.

For months, the United States has been quietly pressing Iran to convince its proxies to scale back their attacks. But there is no sign that the groups have begun to scale back their attacks, and U.S. officials fear the violence will only increase in the coming days.

It’s an escalating trend that could see President Joe Biden drawn deeper into the Middle East just as the 2024 campaign season heats up.

Officials say the possibility of a wider conflict is growing after a series of confrontations in Iraq, Lebanon and Iran in recent days, leading some in the U.S. administration to believe the war in Gaza has officially escalated far beyond the strip’s borders — a scenario the U.S. has been trying to avoid for months.

These developments are dangerous not only for regional security but also for Mr. Biden’s re-election chances. He came into office pledging to end the war and has ordered US troops out of Afghanistan. During his first term, Mr. Biden defended Ukraine against Russia and defended Israel in the fight against Hamas.

Even without American troops fighting in either conflict, American voters may still see 2024 as an opportunity to weigh in on the key foreign policy question of this election: How should the United States engage in foreign wars?

President Biden has pledged to support Ukraine for as long as necessary and assured strong support for Israel.

Meanwhile, his opponent, former President Donald Trump, has claimed that the war in Ukraine could be ended in just a few hours, while arguing that the US should adopt a non-interventionist approach to the Israel-Hamas war.

A Quinnipiac poll in November 2023 found that 84% of Americans are very or somewhat concerned that the United States will be drawn into a conflict in the Middle East. With each passing month, more Americans are concerned that the Biden administration is providing too much material assistance to Ukraine.

As the US election season approaches, the administration is increasingly forced to address flashpoints across the Middle East.

Hotspots across the Middle East

Over the weekend, the Houthis attacked a commercial cargo ship, forcing US Navy helicopters to respond and sink three Houthi boats.

On January 2, Hamas accused Israel of killing its deputy leader in Beirut, Lebanon.

In Kerman, Iran, nearly a hundred people were killed on January 3 in a series of explosions near the grave of Qassem Soleimani, the late Iranian military commander. The terrorist group calling itself the Islamic State claimed responsibility for the attack.

Tensions in the region were further heightened on January 4 after a US drone strike in Baghdad killed an Iran-backed figure named Mushtaq Taleb al-Saidi.

President Biden convened his national security team on the morning of January 1 to discuss the situation in the Red Sea, options and the way forward, according to a senior US administration official. One of the outcomes of that meeting was a joint statement issued by the US and 11 allies warning that the Houthis would face consequences if they continued to threaten lives and disrupt the flow of commerce in the Red Sea.

However, the US administration’s concerns about a wider war in the region are not new. The US has been worried for weeks about the escalation of the war in Gaza, but there has been no indication that threats to US troops abroad have increased in recent days.

Still, there are other signs that the administration is worried about the growing threat. After the Iran attack, officials across the administration, from the Pentagon to the State Department to intelligence agencies, began assessing how Iran or its proxies in the Middle East could attack the United States or its regional allies directly.

U.S. officials say such contingency planning is normal in countries where tensions are rising in the Middle East. But the urgency with which the U.S. is assessing vulnerabilities and devising responses suggests the possibility that the U.S. will eventually have to intervene.

Of particular concern to the US is the potential for an escalation of tensions in the Red Sea. Houthi attacks on merchant ships prompted the US last month to announce the formation of a new international maritime coalition to stop them. Vice Admiral Brad Cooper, commander of the US 5th Fleet, said the coalition has helped about 1,500 merchant ships safely pass through the Red Sea since operations began on December 18, 2023.

However, as of January 4, there had been 25 attacks on commercial vessels passing through the southern Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. On the morning of January 4, the Houthis detonated an unmanned surface vessel for the first time, attacking international shipping lanes, posing a new threat.

Already, Houthi attacks have forced major shipping companies to reroute, adding to costs and delays. U.S. officials fear further escalation. “The biggest concern from our perspective is that the Houthis could sink a ship,” one U.S. official said. “Then what happens?”

Not only that, there are concerns that the violence in Gaza could spill over into the West Bank and Lebanon. Currently, Hezbollah in Lebanon and Israeli soldiers are exchanging fire at the border and there have been reports of Israeli settlers attacking Palestinians in the West Bank.

“Although the US has tried to avoid the Gaza war turning into a regional war, in the end that decision is not entirely up to us. The signs are warning that a regional war will break out,” said Mick Mulroy, a former US Marine Corps officer.